As Hezbollah treats Israel’s expanding ground incursions in southern Lebanon as a familiar military pattern that can be exploited to inflict further losses on the occupation, the Lebanese government continues to view negotiations as the only path capable of stopping the country’s growing losses.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Tuesday that Israel had decided to deepen its military operations in Lebanon.
He stated that “the army is operating with large forces in Lebanon, controlling elevated positions and fortifying the security belt”, according to his remarks.
At the same time, the Israeli military issued urgent evacuation warnings for residents of 13 towns in southern Lebanon, including Salaa, Burj Qalawayh, Jibshit, Al Qusaybah, Froun, Aba, Deir Kifa, Kfar Sir, Srifa, Al Ghandouriyah, Al Nafakhiyah, Qaqaiyat Al Jisr, and Adshit Al Chqif.
The escalation comes just two days before a new round of negotiations between Lebanon and Israel under American sponsorship. These talks were originally expected to reinforce the ceasefire announced nearly two months ago, a truce Lebanese officials say Israel has continued to violate.
A Familiar Israeli Strategy
While the Israeli escalation has forcibly displaced tens of thousands of Lebanese civilians from their homes, political analyst Ali Haidar argued that Tel Aviv’s actions amount to “an attempt to cover up its failure to break the resistance, which appears prepared for these developments”.
Speaking to Al Jazeera, Haidar said Israel had resorted to similar strategies during the 1990s, including after the assassination of former Hezbollah Secretary General Abbas al Musawi and during large scale military campaigns in southern Lebanon such as Accountability in 1993 and Grapes of Wrath in 1996.
Those offensives displaced hundreds of thousands of civilians and extended Israeli attacks as far as Beirut.
According to Haidar, “it is not surprising that Israel would once again resort to escalation against civilians”, arguing that the Lebanese “have no option but steadfastness in confronting the occupation and imposing heavy costs that make long term occupation and stability impossible”.
He added that the real reason behind the escalation is Israel’s growing sense of strategic paralysis.
According to the Lebanese analyst, Israel finds itself unable to stop the resistance strikes that continue to intensify daily, while also being incapable of withdrawing because such a retreat would represent a major strategic defeat. As a result, he argued, Israel is attempting to manufacture a symbolic achievement for domestic and international perception.
Haidar further stated that the widening Israeli incursions would only expand the occupation army’s exposure across southern Lebanon, making its forces easier targets for Hezbollah operations.
He suggested that Hezbollah could unveil new battlefield surprises, noting that the movement has historically escalated its tactical capabilities gradually throughout conflicts.
According to Haidar, Hezbollah may eventually reveal drones capable of reaching distances of up to 50 kilometres, pointing out that the group only disclosed its 30 kilometre range drones at a very late stage of the war.
“No Solution Except Negotiations”
In contrast, Lebanese journalist and political analyst Youssef Diab argued that negotiations remain the only realistic path to ending Lebanon’s ongoing crisis.
Speaking to Al Jazeera, Diab said the Lebanese government is facing “a genuine dilemma” due to Hezbollah’s decision to enter another war following the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, its rejection of negotiations with Israel, and its linking of Lebanon’s future to the ongoing talks between the United States and Iran in Pakistan.
While Diab acknowledged the importance of resistance against occupation, he argued that the Lebanese population had already paid an enormous price, particularly the Shiite community, which he described as bearing the heaviest burden of the current war.
According to Diab, the continued confrontation will bring Lebanon nothing except further human, economic, and military losses.
He stated that Lebanon now has no option other than negotiations with Israel in order to halt the bloodshed, secure the withdrawal of occupation forces, recover prisoners, and establish formal border demarcation between the two countries.
Regional Calculations and Escalating Strikes
Diab also warned that tying Lebanon’s fate to developments in Pakistan would only prolong the crisis, arguing that negotiations between Washington and Tehran are themselves nearing collapse due to tensions between both sides.
He added that Iran would not sacrifice an agreement with the United States for Lebanon’s sake and insisted that Hezbollah accepting the Lebanese government’s approach remains the only viable solution.
According to Diab, Israel would not be capable of carrying out such a large escalation without direct American approval.
Earlier on Tuesday, Israeli warplanes launched heavy airstrikes targeting multiple areas across southern and eastern Lebanon, resulting in the deaths of 17 people and dozens of injuries, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health.
In response, Hezbollah announced attacks targeting Israeli military vehicles and troops at the Khiam detention facility using two suicide drones.
The group also confirmed strikes against the Avivim barracks and a unit belonging to the Israeli military intelligence collection division at the Shomera barracks using additional suicide drones.
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