Why Trump Cannot Break Iran’s Grip on the Strait of Hormuz

Iran continues to maintain firm control over the Strait of Hormuz, positioning it as one of its most powerful strategic levers in confrontation with the United States and Israel. According to analysis cited by The Hill, dismantling this control is proving far more complex than Washington anticipated.

Analysts referenced in the report questioned the effectiveness of policies advanced by Donald Trump, particularly the continuation of maritime restrictions on Iranian shipping. Rather than weakening Tehran, these measures may be reinforcing its strategic position.

Blockade Strategy and Strategic Consequences

Dr Alam Saleh, a lecturer in Iranian Studies at Australian National University, stated that the US blockade is neither practical nor capable of forcing Iran into retreat. He argued that if Iran restricts the passage of other countries’ oil through the strait while the US blocks Iranian exports, the result is a complete shutdown of the waterway.

This outcome aligns directly with Tehran’s objectives. By constraining global oil flows, Iran can sustain elevated energy prices, apply pressure on the global economy, and significantly increase the cost of prolonged conflict for Washington. Saleh further suggested that current US actions may be accelerating the realisation of Iran’s strategy.

Iran’s Rapid Execution and Deterrence Capability

Iran effectively disrupted traffic through the strait shortly after the onset of joint US and Israeli strikes more than 50 days ago. Despite long-standing US military planning for such a scenario, the speed and operational effectiveness of Iran’s response caught Washington off guard.

Jim Krane of the Baker Institute noted that Iran has demonstrated an ability to hold the global economy under pressure in the event of attack, creating a strong deterrence mechanism against future military escalation.

The global impact is already visible. The US is facing rising fuel costs, while other countries are experiencing more severe disruptions, including national emergency declarations and increasing fertiliser shortages affecting agricultural sectors.

Oil Flow Complexity and China Factor

Despite the restrictions, Iranian oil exports have not been fully halted. Saleh pointed out that disrupting shipments to China, which imports approximately 90 percent of Iran’s crude, remains significantly more complex than anticipated.

This dynamic limits the overall effectiveness of US measures and highlights structural challenges in isolating Iran economically.

Geography as a Strategic Advantage

Geography continues to favour Iran. Saleh emphasised that even the most powerful military cannot fully control more than 3,000 kilometres of maritime space or dominate the intricate shipping lanes and coastlines surrounding the strait.

Mark Nevitt reinforced this view, stating that Iran’s ability to deploy drones from multiple locations across its territory ensures a persistent threat to maritime traffic.

Similarly, Sahar Razavi argued that the US cannot realistically eliminate Iranian influence over the strait as long as the current Iranian system remains in place.

Mines, Alliances and Economic Leverage

Iran’s deployment of naval mines presents a significant operational challenge. A US defence official cited in the report indicated that clearing these mines could take up to six months, and cannot begin until active hostilities subside.

At the same time, Tehran is leveraging the crisis to reshape international alignments. Proposals under discussion include imposing transit fees on vessels and encouraging payment in alternative currencies such as the Chinese yuan or digital assets. These measures could reduce reliance on the US dollar and weaken the impact of sanctions.

John Calabrese suggested that allowing friendly states to pass freely while restricting others could gradually erode the anti-Iran coalition.

The report also noted dissatisfaction among countries including United Kingdom and France over Washington’s decision to initiate military action without prior coordination. Analysts indicate that Iran is actively exploiting these divisions.

A Strong Negotiation Lever, Not Absolute Control

Despite these developments, analysts caution against overstating Iran’s position. Calabrese noted that while Iran has not achieved permanent or absolute control over the strait, it has demonstrated the ability to restrict navigation effectively.

This provides Tehran with a strong negotiating position, though it does not yet possess the capacity to independently reshape the regional order.

Long Term Outlook and Structural Constraints

Experts agree that the only sustainable long term solution lies in developing alternative export routes, including pipelines and rail networks that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. However, such infrastructure will require years to implement.

Until then, the strait remains Iran’s most effective strategic instrument. Saleh concluded that military escalation alone will not resolve the crisis, emphasising that a negotiated settlement remains the only viable path forward.