A report by The New York Times has highlighted potential covert roles played by China and Russia during the US-Israeli war on Iran, based on intelligence assessments from Washington.
The conflict began on 28 February following joint US and Israeli strikes on Tehran, resulting in thousands of casualties, particularly in Iran and Lebanon. A temporary two-week ceasefire was later announced through Pakistani mediation.
Suspected Chinese Involvement
US officials told The New York Times that intelligence agencies obtained information suggesting China may have sent a shipment of man-portable missile systems to Iran during the final weeks of the war.
However, officials stressed that the intelligence remains inconclusive, with no confirmed evidence that such weapons were used against US or Israeli forces.
Despite this uncertainty, analysts argue that internal discussions within Beijing about supplying Iran indicate a growing perception that China has direct strategic interests in the conflict. Intelligence assessments further suggest that China has quietly adopted a more active posture by allowing certain companies to supply raw materials, propellants, and technical components that could support Iran’s military production.
While Beijing has refrained from openly transferring fully assembled weapons systems, internal factions within the Chinese government are reportedly pushing for greater support to Iranian security forces in their confrontation with Washington. Observers view this as a significant escalation and a signal that some Chinese leaders may be willing to challenge US military influence more directly.
Beijing Denies Allegations
In response, Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington, rejected the claims, stating that China has not supplied weapons to any party in the conflict and describing the allegations as unfounded.
He emphasised that China remains a “responsible major power” committed to international obligations, while calling on Washington to avoid what he described as media provocation and baseless accusations.
Nonetheless, experts cited in the report suggest that China’s public stance of neutrality is partly driven by its strategic economic ties with Gulf states, which are considered more significant to Beijing than its relationship with Iran.
Former officials also noted that Iran relies heavily on Chinese components for its drone and missile industries. Beijing, however, categorises these exports as dual-use items with both civilian and military applications, mirroring its approach in supporting Russia during the Ukraine war.
Russia’s Intelligence Support
Parallel to these developments, US intelligence has detected an expanding Russian role in the conflict. According to The New York Times, Moscow provided the Iranian military with satellite intelligence to assist the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in targeting US-linked ships and diplomatic facilities.
This form of support, described as non-lethal assistance, underscores a coordinated effort among US adversaries to increase the cost of the war and draw American forces into a prolonged conflict.
The report indicates that while Russia appears more assertive in directly supporting Iran through intelligence sharing, China remains cautious, balancing its involvement with its desire to maintain an image of neutrality.
Diplomatic Tensions Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit
These developments come at a sensitive diplomatic moment, as Donald Trump is planning a visit to China next month to meet Xi Jinping.
The summit, originally scheduled for March, was postponed due to the war. In March, Trump announced that the meeting would likely take place around May 2026, citing his focus on managing the conflict with Iran.
Analysts previously told Reuters that the delay could cast a shadow over bilateral relations, which had remained relatively stable since the leaders’ last meeting in October. However, they suggested it is unlikely to cause a major breakdown in ties.
Strategic Implications
The report highlights a shifting global dynamic in which major powers are increasingly engaging, directly or indirectly, in regional conflicts. The involvement of China and Russia, even at varying levels, signals a broader contest over influence and underscores the complexity of the evolving geopolitical landscape.
