As the war on Iran enters its second month and intensifies in recent days, questions are mounting over how the confrontation may conclude, particularly in light of Tehran’s continued resistance to military pressure and US demands.
Indicators remain mixed between battlefield escalation and political manoeuvring. While the United States and its allies continue to apply military pressure, Iran appears committed to a strategy of absorbing strikes and prolonging the conflict. This dynamic opens the door to several potential scenarios.
Scenario One: Prolonged Attrition
The United States, alongside global actors and particularly Arab states, is experiencing a state of sustained strain affecting key sectors. Political analyst Hossam Shaker explained that the decision to halt this attrition ultimately lies with Washington.
From Iran’s perspective, the current situation is not viewed as a loss, even if it carries costs. The original US objective was to decisively break Iran at both the state and system levels. In response, Tehran faces two options: accept collapse or engage in a prolonged war of attrition. Within this framework, attrition becomes a strategic gain for Iran compared to other possible outcomes.
This scenario is likely to persist unless Iran reduces its military pressure and missile capabilities.
Scenario Two: Ending the War Through an Agreement
Uncertainty continues to dominate indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran, which have been facilitated by regional actors and have extended to China, now involved through a five-point mediation initiative. This comes as the second deadline set by US President Donald Trump approaches on 6 April.
The United States may exit the war with or without an agreement. If the conflict ends through a deal, Washington could present it as a victory. However, such an outcome may effectively serve as a political cover for ending a military campaign that has not achieved its core objectives.
Shaker noted that Iran is unlikely to grant the United States an easy exit. Instead, Tehran seeks to impose conditions that would reshape its regional and economic posture, particularly in relation to sanctions and international cooperation.
Iran is also factoring in the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to strengthen its economic and geopolitical leverage, potentially providing new pressure points against US sanctions.
Scenario Three: Internal Collapse and Regime Change
Another scenario being pursued by the United States involves attempting to fracture the Iranian system from within. This would entail promoting one internal faction over another and encouraging the emergence of a leadership model similar to Venezuela, where a new leadership could offer major concessions and reach understandings with Washington, unlike the current Iranian leadership.
This option has been clearly articulated by US leadership in public statements. However, there are currently no indicators suggesting that such a scenario is viable inside Iran.
According to Shaker, the prevailing trajectory continues to point toward gradual and increasingly dangerous escalation rather than a swift resolution.
Conclusion
The war on Iran remains open-ended, with no clear pathway to immediate resolution. Whether through prolonged attrition, a negotiated settlement, or attempts at internal restructuring, each scenario carries significant complexity.
At present, the most realistic outlook suggests continued escalation, with risks of deeper and more dangerous developments in the near term.
