Discussions are underway between the United States and Iran, with the involvement of several regional mediators, over the terms of a potential 45-day ceasefire that could pave the way toward a permanent end to the war, according to informed sources cited by Axios.
Despite ongoing engagement, the likelihood of reaching even a partial agreement within the next 48 hours remains low. These efforts are being framed as a final attempt to prevent a sharp escalation that could involve large-scale strikes on civilian infrastructure inside Iran, followed by retaliatory attacks targeting energy and water facilities across Gulf states.
Mediated Talks and Diplomatic Channels
Four sources confirmed that communications are taking place through mediators from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey. In parallel, direct text exchanges have been reported between Trump envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
A US official stated that several proposals have already been presented to Iran, though none have received a positive response so far.
Framework of the Two-Stage Agreement
The mediating countries are advancing a two-stage framework. The first phase would involve a 45-day ceasefire, during which negotiations would be conducted to reach a comprehensive agreement to end the war. This initial ceasefire could be extended if further time is required to finalise negotiations.
The second phase would centre on a final agreement that formally brings the war to an end.
Core Issues: Hormuz and Enriched Uranium
Mediators assess that key issues such as the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the handling of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile can only be resolved within a final agreement. Options under discussion include either exporting the uranium out of Iran or reducing its enrichment levels.
Efforts are currently focused on outlining confidence-building measures around these two core issues. Both remain central leverage points for Iran, and Tehran is not expected to fully relinquish them in exchange for a temporary 45-day ceasefire. As a result, partial steps are being explored within the first phase.
Iranian Conditions and Strategic Concerns
Sources indicate that mediators are working to secure US measures that would provide Iran with assurances that any ceasefire would not merely be temporary and that hostilities would not resume.
Iran has made clear that it does not want a repeat of the Gaza or Lebanon scenarios, where ceasefires exist in name but allow for renewed attacks at any time by the United States and Israel.
Escalation Risks and Final Window for Agreement
According to Axios, mediators are increasingly concerned that an Iranian response to a potential US–Israeli strike on energy infrastructure could lead to severe damage to oil and water facilities across Gulf countries.
Iran has also been warned that there is no remaining space for prolonged negotiation tactics. The next 48 hours are being framed as a decisive window to reach an agreement and avoid widespread destruction.
Despite this, Iranian officials continue to adopt a hardline public stance, rejecting concessions. The naval arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has stated that conditions in the Strait of Hormuz will never return to their pre-war state, particularly in relation to the United States and Israel.
