A recent United States intelligence assessment has revealed a markedly different picture from the official narrative promoted by the administration of Donald Trump regarding the trajectory of the war with Iran. According to sources cited by CNN, Tehran retains roughly half of its missile capabilities along with thousands of unmanned aerial vehicles.
The assessment cautions that setting a timeline of two weeks to conclude military operations is unrealistic, a conclusion that has triggered strong backlash from both the White House and the Pentagon, which swiftly moved to discredit the leaks.
Active Arsenal and Complex Operational Tactics
Despite five consecutive weeks of intense daily bombardment by United States and Israeli forces, the assessment indicates that approximately half of Iran’s missile launch platforms remain intact. In addition, thousands of loitering munitions and suicide drones are still operational.
An intelligence source confirmed that Iranian forces remain fully capable of generating widespread disruption across the region. Regular missile and drone attacks continue to target Israel, Gulf states, and United States military bases, signalling that Iran’s capabilities are not theoretical reserves but active, deployable assets.
Intelligence findings attribute the survival of these systems to an extensive network of tunnels and underground facilities developed over decades. These structures have significantly limited the effectiveness of thousands of airstrikes.
Iran has also successfully implemented a “launch and relocate” strategy using mobile platforms. This approach mirrors operational challenges previously encountered by Washington in its engagements with Ansar Allah in Yemen. In response, United States and Israeli forces have recently shifted focus towards targeting tunnel entrances and the heavy machinery used to access them.
Conflicting Assessments and Strategic Discrepancies
These intelligence conclusions stand in sharp contrast to statements made by President Trump, who has asserted that Iran’s capabilities have been significantly degraded. He has claimed that weapons factories and launch platforms are being destroyed entirely and outlined a timeline of two to three weeks to conclude operations.
However, a source familiar with the intelligence assessment stated that while continued damage to Iran’s remaining arsenal is possible, believing the conflict can be resolved within two weeks is fundamentally flawed.
United States Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth downplayed the remaining threat, stating that while some missile launches may continue, they can be intercepted. He added that the past 24 hours recorded the lowest number of hostile missile and drone launches.
Israeli military estimates place the remaining operational launch platforms at between 20% and 25%. However, intelligence sources clarified that these figures account only for visible systems and exclude those concealed within underground networks or difficult-to-access locations.
White House Pushback and Political Response
The United States administration responded swiftly and forcefully to the leaked assessment. Anna Kelly stated that unnamed sources were attempting to undermine what she described as the exceptional performance of the United States military in what was labelled an “epic operation,” while also targeting President Trump politically.
She emphasised that Iranian missile and drone attacks have decreased by 90% and claimed that Iran’s naval forces have been effectively eliminated. She further asserted that the United States and Israel maintain complete air superiority over Iran.
Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell dismissed the report as entirely inaccurate, stating that more than 12,300 targets have been destroyed. He also claimed that senior leadership figures, including Ali Khamenei and Ali Larijani, had been killed, and that military operations are significantly ahead of schedule.
The Strait of Hormuz Dilemma
On the strategic maritime front, the assessment revealed that a substantial portion of Iran’s coastal defence cruise missile systems remains intact. This is attributed to the prioritisation of targeting weapons capable of striking regional allies, rather than coastal military assets.
As a result, Iran retains the ability to threaten maritime navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical shipping routes. Sources indicated that Washington privately acknowledges the difficulty of guaranteeing the security of the strait before the conflict concludes.
While United States Central Command has announced the destruction or disabling of more than 155 vessels, sources clarified that although Iran’s conventional navy has been largely neutralised, the naval forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remain operational. These forces retain approximately half of their capabilities and possess hundreds, potentially thousands, of small boats and unmanned vessels.
A More Complex Reality
While the United States administration maintains that it is progressing ahead of schedule in dismantling Iran’s military capabilities, the intelligence leaks cited by CNN present a more complex and unresolved reality. The divergence between official statements and intelligence assessments continues to fuel debate within Washington regarding the feasibility of concluding the conflict within a matter of weeks.
