Nearly a month ago, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, son in law of US President Donald Trump, held indirect meetings with Iranian officials in Geneva. At the time, the Trump administration was emphasising diplomacy as its preferred path. However, just two days later, the United States and the Israeli occupation launched their war against Iran.
Washington is now seeking a return to the negotiating table after Trump reversed his stance on Monday, announcing that both sides are engaged in talks to end the conflict. Despite this shift, significant obstacles remain, even as the White House expresses optimism.
Limited Momentum and Deep Gaps
According to a CNN report citing informed sources, Gulf states and their European allies are closely monitoring developments amid growing concern over the absence of genuine momentum toward negotiations or even a ceasefire. Current indicators suggest that a direct meeting is unlikely in the near term due to the wide gap between the demands of both sides, particularly as US and Israeli military operations continue.
In this context, Tehran believes it now holds a new leverage point that was not available prior to the war. This leverage lies in its effective control over the Strait of Hormuz. A regional source told CNN, “The fundamentals must be agreed upon before negotiations can begin,” noting that Iran has firmly rejected what it considers extreme proposals.
Conflicting Demands Block Progress
The United States, through Pakistan, presented Iran with a list of 15 demands. These included commitments not to pursue nuclear weapons, the handover of highly enriched uranium, restrictions on defensive capabilities, and the cessation of support for proxy groups. These demands largely mirror pre war proposals.
Nate Swanson, a former National Security Council official, commented: “If this is indeed the US position, then there is no room for successful negotiations.”
Israeli sources have also expressed concern over the possibility of a temporary one month ceasefire to facilitate talks, while remaining sceptical about the chances of a breakthrough. One source indicated that any potential Iranian concessions would likely fall short of minimum US expectations. The Israeli occupation is also concerned that any final agreement may fail to address Iran’s ballistic missile programme or its regional proxy activities.
Iran’s Conditions and Escalating Tensions
On the other side, Iran outlined its demands through Press TV. These include a complete halt to what it describes as aggression and assassinations, guarantees against renewed conflict, clear compensation, an end to military operations across all fronts, and recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite these stated positions, there are no clear signs of a workable agreement.
The escalation, coupled with Iran’s ability to threaten navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, has driven up fuel prices and unsettled global markets. This development provides Tehran with additional bargaining power, at a time when current mediation efforts have failed to produce a coherent framework for a potential agreement.
While some Gulf states are pushing for an immediate cessation of hostilities, others are advocating for a comprehensive agreement. UAE Ambassador Yousef Al Otaiba wrote in The Wall Street Journal that “a simple ceasefire is not enough.”
Indirect Communication and Uncertain Talks
Tehran has confirmed that it is not engaged in direct negotiations with Washington. However, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi acknowledged that messages are being exchanged through intermediaries, stating that this “does not constitute negotiation or dialogue.”
In contrast, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt insisted that the talks are “ongoing” and “productive.”
US officials are currently working to arrange a potential meeting in Pakistan by the end of the week, with the possible participation of Vice President JD Vance and other officials. Tehran has reportedly expressed a preference for engaging with Vance rather than Witkoff or Kushner. There is also discussion of relocating the meeting to Turkey due to security concerns in Pakistan.
Regional Warnings and Risk of Escalation
At the same time, Gulf allies have privately urged the Trump administration not to escalate the conflict by deploying ground forces. They warned that targeting or seizing Kharg Island could lead to significant casualties and provoke Iranian retaliation against regional infrastructure, potentially prolonging the war.
Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, the risk of further military escalation remains high. Approximately 1,000 US troops from the 82nd Airborne Division are expected to be deployed to the Middle East in the coming days. Leavitt warned that Trump is “prepared to unleash war” if Iran does not respond to the current realities on the ground.
