When Saudi Arabia finalised a USD 1.5 billion arms deal with the Sudanese army in January, one condition was attached. According to a Gulf official and a knowledgeable source speaking to Middle East Eye, the flow of weapons to Sudanese forces was contingent on General Abdel Fattah al Burhan abandoning Iranian drones.
These quiet diplomatic manoeuvres illustrate how Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia, are attempting to discreetly capitalise on Iran’s current weakness, as Tehran faces a combination of military setbacks against Israel and growing domestic anger driven by economic collapse.
Yet several Gulf capitals are increasingly uneasy. According to Western and Arab officials and analysts, these states fear that a renewed push by US President Donald Trump to strike Iran could disrupt a fragile new balance. That balance, in their view, offers an opportunity to extract limited concessions from Tehran and revive nuclear negotiations, without triggering a wider confrontation.
“There is a Gulf interest in Iran being weak without descending into chaos,” Joshua Yaffa, a senior researcher at the National Interest, told Middle East Eye.
The primary concern among Gulf monarchies is that a US attack could provoke an uncontrolled Iranian response beyond its borders or strengthen the hand of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
“The last thing they want is a series of American strikes that lead to regime change,” Yaffa added. “The most likely outcome would be a soft coup led by the Revolutionary Guard, which could be far worse than clerical rule.”
Over the past two years, Iran has absorbed heavy blows from both Israel and the United States, yet has demonstrated resilience. During the twelve day war in June, it withstood Israeli missile strikes, and later endured US attacks on its nuclear facilities without collapsing.
In short, Washington and its Gulf partners agree that Iran has been weakened. They diverge, however, on how to use that weakness. Experts suggest that Saudi Arabia views the situation through a transactional lens, similar to its approach in Sudan.
“The Gulf benefits from Iran’s weakness,” said Yasmine Farouk, director of the Gulf programme at the International Crisis Group. “They are filling the vacuum, but they want to do so in the most orderly and least costly way.”
She added that while the United States and Israel see weakness as an opening to strike the regime, parts of the Gulf see it as leverage for concessions.
Gulf Concerns
Trump reignited speculation about strikes on Iran during the government’s violent crackdown on protesters earlier this month. Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar reportedly pressed Washington to halt any attack, and tensions eased as protests subsided.
Despite signs of de escalation, Gulf officials remain concerned that Trump may still pursue a new round of strikes. Trump said on Thursday that a “major force” was heading toward Iran, while the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group moved into the Arabian Sea.
“This conflict will continue,” a Western official told Middle East Eye. “The US administration will keep manoeuvring with military options, while its Gulf partners push for calm. A resolution is unlikely unless conditions inside Iran change.”
Gulf opposition to US strikes is driven primarily by fear of being drawn into the line of fire. Countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar host US military bases, and an American attack coinciding with unrest inside Iran could provoke retaliation that is broader and less predictable than the coordinated June 2025 response, when Iran struck al Udeid Air Base in Qatar following US attacks on its nuclear facilities.
The United States is moving to deploy Patriot and THAAD missile defence systems across the region, according to the Wall Street Journal. However, a Gulf source told Middle East Eye that opposition to strikes, particularly in Saudi Arabia, goes beyond tactical military considerations.
“First, Iran is no longer seen as the main threat,” the source said. “Second, there is a real opportunity to negotiate with the Iranians because they are weak. Trump had Venezuela. What is being said to the Americans is: this is our region. We can make a deal.”
The Gulf, however, is not monolithic.
Saudi Emirati Divergence
While Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar are leading efforts to dissuade Trump from launching new strikes, the United Arab Emirates has sent mixed signals.
An Arab diplomat and a Gulf source told Middle East Eye that the ruling Al Nahyan family has a higher tolerance for risk and is wary of appearing out of step with Israel, which openly supports regime change in Tehran. Other informed officials, however, say the UAE opposes military intervention in Iran.
One Gulf source suggested that Saudi Arabia’s unusually strong push against strikes itself signals Emirati openness to escalation. “Had this happened before the Saudi Emirati rift, Riyadh would not have worked so hard to stop the strikes,” the source said.
Relations between Saudi Arabia and the UAE have deteriorated sharply. Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia expelled Emirati backed forces from Yemen, and Riyadh is now aligned with Egypt and Turkey in supporting the Sudanese army against the UAE backed Rapid Support Forces.
These dynamics highlight the scale of regional shifts. In 2018, former Saudi foreign minister Adel al Jubeir described Iran as “the world’s largest sponsor of terrorism”, at a time when Saudi Arabia and the UAE were close allies fighting the Houthis in Yemen with strong backing from Tehran.
Reciprocity and Mediation
Saudi Iranian diplomatic ties were restored in March 2023 through a China mediated agreement, and rapprochement deepened during Israel’s genocide in Gaza.
When Trump visited the region in May, Riyadh asked him to halt US attacks on the Houthis, a move first reported by Middle East Eye.
Aziz al Gheshian, a lecturer in security studies at Naif Arab University, said Saudi Arabia now expects Iran to respond in kind. Yemen, he noted, sits at the top of Riyadh’s priorities.
“Saudi Arabia wants to see a change in the Houthis’ position, as their hostility toward the kingdom has increased,” he said. “Iran should signal its displeasure with the Houthis.”
Qatar has also moved to fill space left by Iran. It has emerged as a key financial backer of Syrian president Ahmad al Sharaa, whose forces launched a major offensive against Kurdish militias this week.
Qatar and Iran share the world’s largest natural gas field, making any instability in Iran a direct threat to Doha’s vital energy interests.
Analysts say both Oman and Qatar believe the moment is ripe to revive their mediation roles and push for renewed US Iran nuclear talks. There are indications that these efforts are beginning to gain traction.
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, US envoy Steve Witkoff, who consults frequently with Gulf leaders, said: “Iran needs to change its behaviour. If it shows a willingness to do so, I believe we can resolve this diplomatically.”
That, ultimately, is the path preferred by the Gulf.
