Canada’s Globe and Mail newspaper revealed, citing senior government officials, that the Canadian Armed Forces have prepared virtual military models examining a hypothetical scenario of a potential US military invasion of Canada. This is considered the first exercise of its kind in more than a century, despite officials and experts stressing that the scenario remains theoretical and highly unlikely in practical terms.
According to the officials, these models are not executable military plans but rather theoretical frameworks used to assess worst-case risks. They assume that if the United States were to decide on military intervention, it would be capable of seizing key Canadian land and maritime strategic sites within days, possibly within just 48 hours.
Given the vast disparity in conventional military capabilities between the two countries, the Canadian models assume that any viable response would not involve direct confrontation. Instead, it would rely on unconventional warfare based on small groups of soldiers or armed civilians employing ambushes, sabotage, drones, and hit-and-run tactics.
One official noted that these tactics are inspired by the methods used by Afghan mujahideen fighters against the Soviet army during the 1980s, and later by the same approaches employed by the Taliban against US and NATO forces, including Canadian troops. According to the conceptual framework, this approach aims to inflict significant human losses on occupying US forces, making any occupation costly and unsustainable.
This military thinking emerges amid escalating political tensions during the presidency of Donald Trump, who repeatedly floated the idea of annexing Greenland, threatened to impose tariffs on European countries, and previously made controversial remarks suggesting that Canada could become the fifty-first US state.
The newspaper also reported that Canada is considering sending a symbolic force to Greenland to participate in European military exercises, as a gesture of solidarity with Denmark, amid growing concern in Ottawa over shifts in US political rhetoric, particularly in the Arctic region.
Despite these models, Canadian officials emphasise that military relations with Washington remain positive, and that cooperation continues within the framework of the North American Aerospace Defence Command, known as NORAD. This cooperation also includes joint work on a new continental defence system known as the Golden Dome, intended to counter potential missile threats from Russia or China.
The models further assume that any US attack would be preceded by clear political and military signals, including the termination of cooperation within NORAD. In such a case, Canada might seek support from allied nuclear powers such as Britain or France. Mandatory conscription has been ruled out at this stage, in favour of relying on a large volunteer reserve force that could exceed 400,000 personnel.
Retired Major General David Fraser, who commanded Canadian forces in Afghanistan, stated that the idea of Canada having to plan for a US invasion is unreasonable, but reflects a new political reality. He added that Canada could deploy drones and anti-tank weapons similar to those used by Ukraine against Russia, stressing that occupying Canada would be extremely difficult even for the US military.
For his part, retired Lieutenant General Mike Day described the invasion concept as fanciful, while acknowledging that Canada lacks the capacity to repel a large-scale conventional invasion. He argued that controlling a country the size of Canada exceeds the practical capabilities of any military power, including the United States.
Defence experts and academics broadly agree that these scenarios, despite their remoteness, highlight Canada’s urgent need to strengthen its national defence capabilities, not only as a potential deterrent but also to safeguard its sovereign security amid unprecedented shifts in the international order.
