Analysts speaking to the programme Behind the News do not rule out the possibility that Israel may proceed with its threats to escalate against Lebanon, in light of its ongoing violations of the ceasefire agreement and its accusations that the Lebanese government is failing to take the necessary steps to disarm Hezbollah.
The analysts’ remarks came in response to statements made by Lebanese Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji to Al Jazeera, in which he said that Lebanon had received Arab and international warnings of a large scale military operation that Israel is preparing to launch against the country, stressing that ongoing negotiations with Israel would not halt its attacks.
Journalist Nicolas Nassif believes that Israeli threats are not new, but that what is different this time is that the warnings conveyed to Lebanon indicate that any potential Israeli aggression would resemble the events of 2006. According to Nassif, Israel would target Lebanese infrastructure in order to pressure the Lebanese government to accelerate what he described as the difficult task of disarming Hezbollah.
Despite Israel’s disregard for the ceasefire agreement in force with Hezbollah since 27 November 2024 and United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, Nassif adds that Israel seeks to continue negotiations with the Lebanese government under fire. He expresses the view that the mission of disarming Hezbollah has effectively become a joint American Israeli task.
The journalist also notes that the appointment of former ambassador to Washington Simon Karam to the so called “mechanism” committee came in response to American and Israeli conditions aimed at elevating negotiations between Lebanon and Israel to a political level. However, Nassif clarifies that “Lebanon wants to move toward a settlement with Israel, not a peace treaty”.
No American interest
Researcher specialising in Israeli affairs Adel Shadid believes, in his comments to Behind the News in an episode aired on 12 December 2025, that there is an American interest in escalation in Lebanon. He argues that Israel’s actions are taking place with US approval, with the aim of weakening Hezbollah so that it does not stand as an obstacle to the American Israeli project in Lebanon and the wider region.
According to Shadid, Israel does not want a strong government in Lebanon, but rather a politically weak one, enabling it to impose its conditions during negotiations and push the country toward what are known as the Abraham Accords.
Dr Max Abrahms, professor of political science at Northeastern University, agrees that Israel seeks escalation in Lebanon, stating that it is Israel that issues threats and behaves as though it were a policing authority.
The American academic does not rule out the possibility that Israel could carry out what he described as precise surgical strikes against Hezbollah if the Lebanese government does not take further steps to disarm the group.
It is worth recalling that on 5 August, the Lebanese Council of Ministers approved the confinement of all weapons, including those held by Hezbollah, to the authority of the state, and tasked the army with developing and implementing a plan before the end of 2025. However, Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem has repeatedly stated that the party rejects this decision and insists on the withdrawal of Israeli forces from all Lebanese territory.
Nevertheless, the professor of political science at Northeastern University does not believe that American interests align with this Israeli approach. He notes that President Donald Trump is currently focusing his efforts on the Gaza Strip and does not wish to see a confrontation erupt between Hezbollah and Israel.
