According to the Israeli press, a meeting is due to be held in the next two weeks between United States President Donald Trump and the enemy’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the fifth of its kind since the former took office 10 months ago. The new meeting was arranged during a phone call between the two men that focused on Syria, according to a statement issued by Netanyahu’s office. The call itself is one among dozens exchanged between them in the same period, and Trump accompanied it with a post on his platform Truth Social in which he asked his interlocutor “not to interfere in the course of Syria’s development into a prosperous state”.
Although developments in the Middle East during that period may partly explain this number of meetings and communications between the two, the urgency that marks Trump’s new invitation to Netanyahu can only be understood in light of the possibility of a deterioration in the situation with Iran and its allies in the region in the coming phase. From this angle, what is absent from the Israeli statement becomes more important than what it contained, particularly in view of the escalating threats between Tel Aviv and Tehran, and the deception policy that both men pursued before the 12-day war on Iran last June.
It is clear that all current United States diplomatic moves in the region are aimed at encircling Iran and weakening its influence wherever it exists, especially in Israel’s immediate environment. For this reason, Washington is presently applying its strongest pressure in two arenas more than others, Iraq and Lebanon, in the hope that this will produce changes that make war unnecessary.
What Trump actually wants is to tighten full control over this region. That has only one gateway, exerting pressure on Iran to force it to make concessions, including through a war that targets it directly or targets its allies. Through these tools, Washington hopes to open the way for a fundamental change in the regional balance of power according to new arrangements under its sponsorship. These arrangements would include Syria, Saudi Arabia and other Arab states, in addition to Turkey, with their axis built around consolidating the rule of the Syrian transitional president, Ahmed Al Shar’a.
Most United States diplomatic activity in the region is concentrated on weakening Iran.
If the parties mentioned cannot proceed with any project of this kind without first reaching a solution for the Gaza Strip that is acceptable to them and that removes Hamas from power, but in a different manner and with alternatives other than those Israel wants, Netanyahu’s calculations lie in a completely different place. He wants the entire file to be in Israel’s hands and in his own hands personally, so that he can complete his wars and achieve the expansionist and security goals he has set. This necessarily requires preserving the coalition that forms the government at least until the next elections, in which “Bibi” believes the current situation guarantees him victory.
The major new factor framing Netanyahu’s visit is the political earthquake caused by his request that the president of the state, Isaac Herzog, grant him a pardon in the corruption cases for which he is on trial. Trump himself had raised this request during his visit to Israel last October. This development will have a significant impact on the course of the wars currently underway, as it places Netanyahu in a weaker position to implement his own program and makes him more amenable to compromise than before. That, in turn, allows the United States program on Syria and Gaza to move one step ahead of Netanyahu’s program and that of his right-wing government.
The situation with Iran, Lebanon and Iraq is more obscure. The Americans are brandishing the Israeli stick daily in the face of the Lebanese if Hezbollah’s weapons are not dismantled, as part of the effort to weaken Tehran. In Iraq, the special envoy to Syria and official in charge of the Lebanon file, Tom Barak, had to visit Baghdad to deliver a threat of an Israeli strike that the country may face if Iraqi factions intervene in favour of Hezbollah, which Israel is reportedly preparing to target with an imminent blow. In addition to all this, a European diplomat whose comments were carried by the Ynet website believes that Israel may launch a new war on Iran within the next 12 months, the remaining duration of Netanyahu’s term if early elections are not held, and if nothing new occurs to block that path in the currently stalled negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
