Lebanon is entering a new military phase unlike any before it, following Hezbollah’s latest statement.
As Israel continues its intensified airstrikes south of the Litani River, military assessments suggest that the Lebanese resistance is preparing for a renewed confrontation.
A Political Statement with Military Weight
Military strategist Brigadier General Elias Hanna described Hezbollah’s statement as the most significant shift in the current stage, noting that it was explicitly directed to Lebanon’s three presidents — President Joseph Aoun, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.
In its Thursday announcement, Hezbollah affirmed that the issue of “exclusive arms control” cannot be discussed in response to any foreign demand, but only within a national Lebanese framework.
The party warned against being drawn into negotiation traps that serve Israeli interests, reiterating its right to resist the occupation alongside the Lebanese army and the people.
According to Hanna, this declaration signals that political firmness must be matched by military readiness:
“Rejecting everything requires being fully prepared,” he stated.
Escalation on Both Fronts
Hanna noted that the latest Israeli military escalation coincided with Hezbollah’s statement, with Israeli strikes targeting virtually every moving object south of the Litani — from military convoys to individual motorbikes and cars.
He pointed to key statistics highlighting the geographical pattern of Israeli attacks since the ceasefire:
- 47% of strikes occurred south of the Litani,
- 37% north of it, and
- 16% in the Bekaa Valley.
According to the analyst, this reflects Israel’s operational focus:
the Bekaa hosts long-range strategic weapons, while the southern regions contain command structures, anti-tank systems, and Katyusha launchers.
From this deployment pattern, Hanna expects the next phase to feature close-range operations (between 8–12 km) using anti-tank missiles and short-range Katyusha rockets, describing them as “disruptive engagements” rather than full-scale backing operations as before.
Changing the Ground Equation
On the battlefield, Hanna confirmed that Hezbollah’s security structure has evolved since the Israeli army entered and maintained positions in five points along the border.
This incursion, he said, limits Hezbollah’s ability to fight from its previous launching zones, which have become exposed.
Two weeks earlier, Israel held a military drill for its 91st Division, simulating an infiltration by Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force and Israel’s subsequent counter-attack.
According to Hanna, Hezbollah is adjusting its command and control system to create a new operational equation in response.
Israel’s Post-October 7 Doctrine: “Attack as Defense”
The Israeli army, Hanna explained, has adopted a new strategic doctrine since October 7, 2023 — the belief that offense is the best defense.
The five points seized by Israeli forces are high-ground areas overlooking settlements, intended to secure them from potential Hezbollah infiltration.
This has resulted in new “rules of engagement”, allowing Israel to strike targets even under the ceasefire agreement.
Hanna noted that Israel’s main concern is not long-range missiles but the short-range Katyusha, whose unpredictability and mobility make it harder to neutralise.
On Thursday evening, the Israeli air force launched multiple air raids on the towns of Tair Diba, Taybeh, Aita al-Jabal, and Zoutar al-Sharqiya in southern Lebanon, after ordering civilians to evacuate — the largest evacuation notice since the November 2024 ceasefire.
International Mechanisms and the Lebanese State’s Dilemma
Addressing the effectiveness of international monitoring mechanisms, Hanna urged realism about the U.S. monitoring centre in southern Lebanon.
He noted that Gaza has 20 main observation points, yet Israel continues to violate agreements.
He clarified that the “Quint Mechanism” currently under discussion differs fundamentally from U.N. Resolution 1701 that ended the 2006 war.
Regarding the role of the Lebanese state, Hanna asserted that the Lebanese army cannot be used in direct combat with Israel, nor internally against Hezbollah.
He described the army as both a “blessing and a burden” — a blessing for maintaining stability, yet a burden because sectarian divisions prevent it from fully protecting the state.
Hanna revealed that the army has already exhausted its stock of explosives in demolishing infrastructure south of the Litani.
He added that President Aoun’s directive to the army to respond militarily was primarily aimed at containing tensions, not initiating open warfare.
Three Challenges Ahead for Lebanon
In summary, Lebanon faces three intertwined challenges, according to Hanna:
- How Hezbollah will respond militarily to continued Israeli strikes;
- What role the Lebanese army will play, given its limited capacity; and
- How the Lebanese government will manage the next phase amid growing pressure from both Washington and Tel Aviv.
Analysis: Between Resilience and Restraint
Hezbollah’s latest statement reaffirms that the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon continues to view armed readiness as a sovereign national right, not a foreign bargaining chip.
It also reflects a strategic awareness — that Israel’s current doctrine aims to shift deterrence lines southward, using limited incursions and constant air pressure to erode Hezbollah’s mobility.
At the same time, the party appears to be balancing between escalation and containment, aware that any miscalculated move could draw Lebanon into a broader regional war — one that Tel Aviv and Washington may actually welcome to relieve pressure on Gaza.
For now, the coming days will test whether Hezbollah’s message — rejecting external dictates while maintaining deterrence — signals a temporary tactical pause or the start of a new phase in the long struggle for Lebanon’s sovereignty.
