The possibility of a full-scale Israeli war on Lebanon remains strong — yet it is not the preferred option for Tel Aviv at this stage. Several factors are restraining this scenario, making it more of a political pressure card than an immediate military reality.
1. Israel’s Alternative to Open War
Israel does not necessarily need to launch a large-scale war to target Hezbollah or undermine its capabilities. The previous phase proved that Tel Aviv can carry out precise airstrikes inside Lebanese territory whenever it wishes — whether on sites believed to belong to the resistance movement or on individuals affiliated with it — without committing to an open war.
These limited strikes achieve most of Israel’s short-term military goals without bearing the enormous cost of a wide confrontation, making the option of a comprehensive war unattractive for now.
2. A Costly and Prolonged Battle
From a field perspective, any war on Lebanon would be far from short. Even if Israel decided to engage in a major confrontation, it would have to prepare for a long and complex battle, especially given Lebanon’s rugged terrain that grants Hezbollah a clear advantage in ground warfare.
The Israeli army, already exhausted after two years of relentless fighting in Gaza, cannot afford a prolonged war of attrition of this nature. Its losses would be heavy — militarily, psychologically, and politically — deepening internal divisions within Israeli society.
3. The Political Dimension: Washington’s Pressure Strategy
The third factor relates to Lebanon’s internal political landscape, which both Israel and the United States are increasingly betting on. Washington today wields significant influence over the Lebanese state and its institutions, using financial and political tools to isolate and weaken Hezbollah from within.
Launching a new war could, however, destroy this entire strategy, allowing Hezbollah to regain the initiative — whether by reviving the rhetoric of resistance or by rallying the Lebanese public around the cause of confronting foreign aggression.
Balancing Pressure and Restraint
Tel Aviv is currently balancing two opposing imperatives: the need to contain Hezbollah’s growing influence, and the desire to avoid another wide-ranging military confrontation.
As long as Israel can achieve its objectives through political coercion, targeted airstrikes, and indirect economic siege, it is unlikely to escalate into war.
Yet the prospect of war is not entirely off the table. It remains a real possibility if Hezbollah crosses the “red lines” set by Israel, or if regional and international conditions shift in a way that forces a renewed confrontation on the northern front.
