More than two years into the devastating Israeli war on the Gaza Strip — marked by genocide and deliberate starvation — the central question remains: how can this war be stopped?
Will battlefield realities and international pressure push toward a temporary truce that stabilises the situation, or are we heading into another cycle of escalation that will deepen Gaza’s humanitarian catastrophe?
A new study by the Center for Leadership and Diplomacy, published on 30 August, offers a detailed analysis of six possible scenarios that could either halt the war or reshape its trajectory.
The study, authored by researcher Wael Shadeed, concludes that the most likely scenario is a temporary, internationally monitored ceasefire — or at best, a short-term truce that may collapse quickly, triggering renewed violence.
Key Drivers of the War’s Trajectory
The study identifies 12 main factors influencing the path of the conflict, with three being decisive:
- U.S. influence on Israel — Washington remains the single most important actor capable of altering Israeli behaviour.
- Stability of Israel’s ruling coalition — internal fractures in Tel Aviv’s leadership affect its ability to resist external pressure.
- Israeli security establishment priorities — balancing military gains against political costs.
The study also notes the essential role of regional mediators — particularly Qatar and Egypt — in shaping any negotiations or future arrangements.
Equally critical for sustaining any ceasefire are:
- The flow of humanitarian aid.
- Plans for governance in post-war Gaza.
- International legal pressure on Israel.
The researcher warns that any fragile agreement will collapse swiftly if it fails to deliver tangible improvements in the daily lives of civilians.
Six Scenarios for Ending the War
According to the study, the war that Israel launched on 8 October 2023 could conclude or shift under six possible scenarios:
1. Temporary, Monitored Ceasefire (Most Likely)
- A mediated truce under international or third-party supervision.
- Implications: Rapid drop in Palestinian casualties, partial opening for reconstruction, and a shift of resistance from direct military action to political deterrence.
- Risks: Fragility due to lack of clear governance plans and unreliable aid guarantees.
2. Short-Term Truce
- A brief cessation of fighting, possibly tied to partial prisoner exchanges but without a broader political framework.
- Implications: Temporary humanitarian relief for Gaza’s population.
- Risks: Inconsistent aid flows, ongoing displacement, and eroded trust between parties.
3. Israeli Unilateral Withdrawal
- Tel Aviv declares an end to its “major operations” while continuing airstrikes.
- Implications: Lower casualty rates than all-out war.
- Risks: Gaza remains under suffocating security and economic conditions.
4. Imposed Ceasefire
- Through U.S. and UN pressure on Israel.
- Implications: Provides immediate humanitarian relief.
- Risks: Dependent on volatile international politics and Israeli compliance.
5. Transitional International/Arab Administration (Unlikely)
- An Arab-trained force, under international mandate, temporarily managing security and services in Gaza.
- Risks: Rejected by Palestinians as undermining sovereignty; difficult to implement.
6. Continued Open War (Least Likely)
- A total failure of all previous scenarios, leading to a prolonged and unconstrained Israeli campaign.
- Implications: Escalating death tolls, mass displacement, and intensifying humanitarian collapse.
Humanitarian and Political Implications
- Ceasefire under monitoring: Best short-term option for saving lives, but inherently fragile without governance clarity.
- Short-term truce: Temporary relief, but risks recycling the violence cycle.
- Unilateral withdrawal: A “cosmetic pause” that reduces fighting but leaves civilians trapped under siege conditions.
- Imposed or transitional solutions: May bring visible humanitarian improvement, but remain hostage to external politics and internal Palestinian divisions.
Indicators to Watch
The study highlights several signs that could reveal which path is most likely:
- Israeli cabinet formally approving a ceasefire agreement.
- U.S. conditions on Israel — including suspension of munitions supplies.
- Documented prisoner exchanges within two months.
- Daily aid deliveries of at least 500 trucks.
- Preparedness of an Arab security force with political cover for interim governance.
- Growing Israeli public pressure to end the war.
Complex Network, Fragile Prospects
Researcher Wael Shadeed concludes that no single path guarantees the end of the war. Instead, Gaza faces a complex web of possibilities — from fragile truces that may collapse at any moment, to a distant dream of a political settlement that addresses the root causes.
Still, the internationally monitored ceasefire remains the most plausible scenario in the near term. It carries the lowest immediate human cost and the highest chance of implementation — even if it risks failure without a sustainable, comprehensive political solution.
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