Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is struggling to hold his fragile ruling coalition together after the opposition party Yesh Atid submitted a motion to dissolve the Knesset, scheduled for vote on June 11. Tensions are mounting inside the right-wing government, especially as cracks widen between Netanyahu’s Likud party and its ultra-Orthodox partners.
In a surprising move, religious parties within the coalition have signalled their support for the Knesset’s dissolution—despite being part of the ruling bloc—due to deepening disputes over a proposed law that would exempt ultra-Orthodox Jews (Haredim) from mandatory military service. Netanyahu, seeking to avoid a political collapse, insists that the crisis is manageable and a solution is still possible.
Below, Sunna Files breaks down the unfolding political drama and what it could mean for Israel’s leadership and its war on Gaza:
What is the current makeup of the Knesset?
The Knesset has 120 seats. A simple majority of 61 votes is required to pass a motion to dissolve it.
What is the legislative procedure?
The Yesh Atid motion must go through four rounds of voting. In the final round, it must secure an absolute majority to become law. If passed, the Knesset would be dissolved and early elections would be held within five months.
Practically, if the preliminary vote passes, the remaining stages could take place the same day—or be delayed for months.
What is the opposition’s strategy?
The motion to dissolve the Knesset will only be brought to a vote if Yesh Atid is confident it has the majority. If not, the party can withdraw the motion any time before June 11, effectively halting the process.
Are there alternative scenarios?
Yes. Ultra-Orthodox parties within the coalition might resign in protest over the failure to secure exemption from military service for Haredi men. However, they may refuse to vote for dissolution, allowing the government to survive as a minority coalition.
How many seats does Netanyahu’s coalition hold?
Currently, Netanyahu’s coalition controls approximately 68 seats—though internal tensions make the number volatile.
The two main ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, together hold 18 seats. If they join the opposition, there would be enough votes to dissolve the Knesset and trigger early elections—nearly a full year ahead of schedule.
What’s the background of the draft exemption law?
The proposed law aims to exempt ultra-Orthodox men from compulsory military service—a long-standing source of controversy in Israeli society.
Religious parties backing Netanyahu vehemently oppose military service for Haredim, while the Israeli Supreme Court has ruled that the current exemption system is unjust and must be revised.
Ultra-Orthodox parties have threatened to withdraw from the coalition if forced into compromise. Meanwhile, secular and right-wing members within Likud and its allies oppose major concessions to the Haredim, citing growing public backlash against discrimination in conscription.
Can Netanyahu’s government actually fall?
Middle East analyst Hassan Merhej told Arabi21 that Netanyahu’s downfall is possible—but politically complex. The outcome hinges on delicate internal dynamics within Israel’s ruling bloc.
“If Netanyahu fails to satisfy all factions of his coalition—particularly the ultra-Orthodox and the far-right nationalists—his government could collapse,” says Merhej.
Even a no-confidence vote from a single coalition partner—or from within Likud itself—could trigger a crisis. The opposition, led by Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz, is actively leveraging the chaos to push for early elections.
What would Netanyahu’s downfall depend on?
Merhej explains that the likelihood of toppling Netanyahu depends on how firmly the ultra-Orthodox hold to their draft exemption demands, and the power balance inside the coalition.
Other influential factors include:
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- The Israeli military’s stance
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- The Supreme Court’s position
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- And Netanyahu’s own desire to cling to power—even at the cost of political concessions
How does this impact the war on Gaza?
According to Merhej, internal political pressure could result in increased military escalation in Gaza. When cornered, Israeli leaders often seek to project strength by intensifying aggression against Palestinians.
Alternatively, if the government sees domestic fallout as a bigger threat, it might pursue a temporary ceasefire or tone down its war rhetoric—though such moves are often tactical, not moral.
This political tug-of-war in Tel Aviv is not just about power—it may very well shape the fate of Gaza in the coming months.
