As we approach the end of the first quarter of the 21st century, the global landscape is at a critical juncture, with the system of interstate competition undergoing a profound transformation.
This modern system, which emerged in the 17th century through the capitalist empires of the Dutch and the English, has been reshaped multiple times. The industrial capitalist states and European colonialism dominated the 18th and 19th centuries, followed by a system overhaul after the catastrophic global conflicts of the early 20th century. These conflicts, referred to as the “30 years war” by historian EH Carr, gave rise to a new order shaped by US dominance during the Cold War era.
Today, however, we are witnessing the decline of US hegemony and the emergence of a multipolar world system.
The Rise of Protectionism and Isolationism
The past year has offered clear evidence of this global shift. Former US President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies are emblematic of the changes underway. Historically, rising industrial powers like the US in the early 20th century or Britain before 1840 have adopted protectionist strategies. In contrast, dominant market powers, such as the UK after the Industrial Revolution or the US after 1945, have championed free trade to expand their global influence.
Interestingly, China now emerges as the torchbearer of free trade, while the US has reverted to protectionism, a trend not seen since the 1930s. While trade wars do not necessarily escalate into military conflicts, Trump’s protectionist stance is paired with isolationist rhetoric, fueled by domestic fatigue over “foreign wars” such as the conflicts in Iraq and Ukraine. Despite this rhetoric, Trump’s administration actively pursued hostility toward China and Iran while pressuring European NATO allies to increase military spending, exposing the financial strain on the US military-industrial complex. This reliance on “tributes” from allies signals a weakening imperial power struggling to sustain its dominance.
NATO, Ukraine, and the Middle East: Signs of US Decline
While Trump may advocate for a truce in Ukraine, his administration’s policies have only deepened the militarization of NATO and strengthened Russia’s alliances, particularly with China. Beyond Europe, the weakening of US hegemony is also evident in the Middle East.
The US seeks to reduce its involvement in the region to focus on its competition with China. However, disengagement is nearly impossible given the region’s geopolitical significance, particularly its vast oil reserves and strategic shipping routes like the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Recent events, such as the Houthis’ demonstration of control over critical waterways, underline the enduring importance of the Middle East in global trade and stability.
Moreover, the US’s ally, Israel, has faced mounting political and diplomatic costs due to its aggressive policies. While the destruction of Gaza and the weakening of Hezbollah might appear as victories, Israel has been widely condemned internationally, accused of genocide, and its leadership faces war crime charges in numerous countries. These developments highlight Israel’s increasing isolation and the challenges the US faces in managing its proxy state.
China’s Challenge to US Hegemony
Amid these shifts, China has emerged as the foremost challenger to US global dominance. While the US struggles to navigate its commitments in Europe and the Middle East, it is compelled to allocate significant resources to counter China’s growing influence. This competition is not merely strategic but also structural, as the dynamics of the global imperial order demand confrontation between dominant and rising powers.
However, China’s rise is not without challenges. Its rapid industrialization, which propelled its global ascent, has begun to slow. The Chinese leadership is now focused on developing its domestic market to sustain growth, but such transitions often lead to economic and political instability. This internal fragility may exacerbate international tensions, as history has shown that empires often externalize domestic challenges through military or imperial ventures.
A Tumultuous Future
As 2025 approaches, the world stands at the threshold of a new era. The US, led by a president grappling with a declining empire, has resorted to protectionism, isolationism, and reliance on regional proxies. At the same time, China, while facing significant internal challenges, continues to assert itself as a formidable global power.
This convergence of factors sets the stage for heightened international tensions, with governments likely to seek external enemies to divert attention from domestic failings. For ordinary citizens worldwide, this period demands vigilance and mobilization to advocate for peace and resist the destructive tendencies of imperial rivalries.
