As Israel faces regional and international isolation due to its continued atrocities in Palestine and Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is forming an alliance with Tel Aviv to draft a “Post-War Gaza Plan,” aimed at imposing Israel’s vision on the future of the region.
American officials have revealed that Secretary of State Antony Blinken is reviewing a post-war Gaza plan based on concepts developed by Israel and the UAE. This plan is set to be presented after the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, as reported by the American website Axios.
The report mentions that several officials from the White House and the State Department are concerned that this plan might sideline Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and his government, a move that Israel and the UAE are likely pushing for in the near term.
However, with no agreement on prisoner exchanges or a lasting ceasefire in Gaza, presenting a “next day” plan could potentially be seen as a positive part of the Biden administration’s legacy regarding the ongoing conflict.
Axios spoke to twelve American, Israeli, Palestinian, and Emirati officials who are informed about this issue to gather insights for this story.
According to American officials, some members of the State Department, including Blinken, believe that reaching a deal on prisoner exchanges and a ceasefire seems unlikely before the end of the Biden administration. Therefore, the Israeli-Emirati plan is viewed as a “potential alternative” that could outline a pathway out of the conflict.
Yet, other officials within the State Department argue that this idea is unwise, serving only the interests of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and is almost certain to be rejected by the Palestinians, leading to its failure.
American, Israeli, and Emirati officials stated that the Biden administration, along with Israel and the UAE, has been discussing various ideas for potential plans over the past few months.
Moreover, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair has also participated in these discussions, contributing some original ideas to the plan.
In July, Brett McGurk, President Biden’s Middle East advisor, and Tom Sullivan, a State Department consultant, met in Abu Dhabi with Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, a close associate of Netanyahu, and UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed to deliberate on this issue.
The day before this meeting, the Emiratis presented their proposal in an opinion piece authored by Lana Nusseibeh, the Special Envoy for “Abu Dhabi Today.”
The plan proposed the deployment of a temporary international mission in Gaza with a mandate to provide humanitarian aid, enforce law and order, and establish the foundations for good governance.
The UAE also suggested sending troops to Gaza as part of an international force. However, they stipulated that such a move would require a formal invitation from the Palestinian Authority, contingent upon “meaningful reforms led by a new Prime Minister with authority and independence.”
In practical terms, the UAE aims to marginalize President Mahmoud Abbas, whom they deem corrupt and incapable, stripping him of any executive powers. They also sought to replace the current Palestinian Prime Minister, Mohammad Mustafa, whom they consider loyal to Abbas.
One of the fundamental principles of the UAE’s plan is that it would hinge on political leaders’ agreement on a two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians.
Israeli officials have noted that Netanyahu favors several aspects of the UAE’s plan but opposes the more political elements, particularly the involvement of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza and the vision of a two-state solution.
Officials noted that discussions around the Israeli-Emirati plan have gained renewed momentum in recent weeks.
In late September, Dermer and other key figures met separately with Blinken, who is overseeing this issue within the Biden administration, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
According to officials, Abu Dhabi and Dermer requested Blinken’s assistance in bridging the remaining gaps between Israel and the UAE concerning the plan, with the aim of finalizing it — or even turning it into an American proposal to be presented after the November elections.
One unresolved issue revolves around a new idea from the Emiratis, suggesting that the plan should include reopening the U.S. consulate in Jerusalem as a gesture to Palestinians and a way to demonstrate that the United States is invested in the plan and is leading the process.
American officials have stated that Israel strongly opposes this idea and remains against any mention of a two-state solution.
However, the primary rift between Israel and the UAE pertains to the precise role of the Palestinian Authority.
Emirati officials have stated that the UAE wants the Palestinian Authority’s Prime Minister to appoint a Palestinian figure to assist in leading the transitional process in Gaza.
On the other hand, American and Israeli officials have indicated that Israel would not consider any potential role for the Palestinian Authority until the long term.
Two senior officials from the U.S. State Department clarified that if Blinken were to present a plan, it would incorporate ideas from Israel, the UAE, and the United States, with the goal of securing broader regional consensus on the plan.
A State Department official stated, “We will not support a post-war plan without a role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza. Discussions are ongoing about the shape of this role.”
