Two researchers have commented on the looming Israeli assault on Iran and the ongoing aggression against Lebanon, amidst the escalating clashes between Hezbollah and “Israel,” as tensions in the region continue to rise rapidly.
The Israeli War on Hezbollah: Political and Military Implications
Regarding the Israeli war against Hezbollah, Randa Slim, the Director of the Conflict Resolution Program at the Middle East Institute, remarked, “The longer this war in Lebanon drags on, the more opportunities it creates for Hezbollah to reassert itself both politically and militarily.”
In her interview with CNN, she pointed out that “there are already reports of recruitment efforts, with people expressing a desire to join Hezbollah. This is partly due to opposition to the Israeli invasion.” She added, “These [Hezbollah fighters] are people whose villages have been destroyed, and they will give everything they have, dragging Israel into a prolonged and bloody battle.”
Slim further explained, “Instead of Israel capitalizing on its tactical gains, it will be drawn into a long-term occupation.”
Internal Challenges for Israel
In the same context, Richard Haass, President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, addressed the Israeli promotion of “victories” against Hezbollah on the domestic front in Israel. He commented, “The issue with all of this is that if you accumulate tactics, you don’t arrive at a strategy.”
He told CNN, “I don’t see in any of these situations a clear definition of victory or an end to the war, because Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas still possess tools they can use.”
Since September 23, the Israeli occupation has launched unprecedented and brutal air raids on various locations in Lebanon, resulting in thousands of martyrs and wounded. According to official data, more than 1.2 million people have been displaced as a result of these attacks.
On the other hand, Hezbollah continues its operations against the Israeli occupation, expanding its targets in response to Israel’s ongoing crimes in Lebanon. This escalation has been intensifying over the past two weeks, with Hezbollah retaliating against Israeli aggression.
Potential Israeli Attacks on Iran: A Strategic Dilemma
Regarding the potential Israeli attacks on Iran, Haass, when asked about Israel’s objective, stated, “It could range from the modest to the wildly ambitious.” He emphasized that talk of “regime change [in Iran] is not a strategy but rather a security concern.”
He further questioned, “Will the Israelis target military sites where missiles and drones are produced and stored, the same ones that attacked Israel? Will they become more ambitious and think of economic targets, something that the United States and most of the world would not welcome? The Saudis would also not welcome this, as they could become targets themselves. Will they attempt something related to the nuclear program? If so, how much could they achieve on their own?”
Slim also highlighted the danger of escalating retaliatory strikes, noting that this is “partially due to Iran’s changing capacity to bear risks.”
She explained that “in April, the Iranians decided that the risks and costs of not responding outweighed the risks of a regional war that could drag the United States into it. In April, they launched ballistic missiles and drones. Now, in October, they have repeated this because they felt that the April strike did not restore deterrence.”
Both Iran and Israel are “renegotiating the red lines,” according to Slim.
Iran’s Missile Attack: A Reaction to Assassinations
In early October, Iran launched a missile strike against the Israeli occupation, firing more than 200 ballistic missiles in response to the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander Abbas Nilforushan in an Israeli raid on southern Beirut on September 27.
The attack also came in retaliation for the assassination of the late elected Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh during his visit to Tehran at the end of July.
In response, the Israeli occupation army vowed to launch a significant attack on Iran, while Tehran confirmed its readiness to deliver an even harsher response if “Israel” proceeded with any retaliatory strikes.
