The newspaper Haaretz said that the proposal of the US president to halt the ceasefire in Gaza has put the head of the occupation government, Benjamin Netanyahu, at a crossroads, which may push him to use the last card for maneuvering.
The newspaper indicated that the proposal offers the possibility of ending the aggression on Gaza, releasing dozens of prisoners held by Hamas, calming the northern borders with Lebanon, and perhaps pushing for a historic agreement to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia.
However, it is also likely to lead to the collapse of Netanyahu’s ruling coalition, which may send him into opposition and make him more susceptible to condemnation in a trial accusing him of corruption.
Regarding the political crisis he faces internally, Israeli journalist and analyst Aluf Benn believes that Netanyahu is “quickly approaching his old approach to ending political crises, which is dissolving the Knesset and going to elections.”
In Benn’s opinion, dissolving the Knesset is “the only remaining card in Netanyahu’s hand” to achieve two urgent goals, internally and externally: halting the ceasefire with Hamas, including a hostage deal, and stopping the impending judgment likely to be issued by the Israeli Supreme Court, which imposes the conscription of Orthodox extremists.
Such a decision would anger Netanyahu’s right-wing and nationalist base, especially amid the ongoing war for about eight months.
Bringing forward the legislative elections would give Netanyahu additional political capital, which he could use to his advantage in the face of increasing threats from right-wing and left-wing coalition partners to resign due to disagreements over the ceasefire in Gaza.
Dissolving the Knesset “will prevent” Smotrich and Ben Gvir, according to Benn, from toppling an interim government that agrees to Biden’s proposed deal with Hamas.
On the other hand, Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot would face difficulty leaving the government if the plan is adopted, with the expectation of the return of prisoners.
As for the aggression on Gaza, the ceasefire remains a “critical necessity,” according to the same analysis, to prevent a wider conflict in the north, including the Lebanese Hezbollah.
The analysis concluded that “Netanyahu realizes well that the army has no means to subdue Hezbollah in Lebanon, and that waging a comprehensive war against it would bring widespread destruction to Israeli population centers, infrastructure, and the economy.”
Such a stance would be seen by the right as “a shameful defeat” and would threaten Netanyahu in an electoral campaign where he faces competition from the right by Ben Gvir. “But it is an acceptable price to pay in the face of increasing pressure from President Joe Biden to end the Israeli military campaign in Gaza.”
Dissolving the Knesset would also postpone increasing demands to form a governmental investigation committee into the October 7 attack and how the government dealt with the war, according to the analysis, “while an interim government can evade conducting such an investigation.”
In his speech on Friday, Biden appeared to offer Netanyahu a way out: “Claiming victory by saying that the exhausted Hamas is no longer capable of launching an attack like the one on October 7, and returning all the hostages home and then working with the United States and Arab countries to settle the conflict. “But fear of losing power may prevail.”
Despite all their threats, Netanyahu’s extremist right-wing allies face a similar dilemma. They are likely to join him in opposition if early elections are held, losing them the power granted to them regarding the Israeli police and settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank.
If Netanyahu manages to maintain the cohesion of his coalition until the next elections scheduled for 2026, he may be able to rehabilitate his image.
