Israel is updating its military target lists inside Iran, preparing for a possible Iranian retaliation and strengthening its positions along the Lebanese front, even as Washington has yet to decide whether to launch another military campaign against Tehran.
Behind the preparations lies a far more ambitious Israeli objective: removing Iran’s political leadership, a scenario Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly instructed security agencies to pursue in coordination with US President Donald Trump.
Israeli military assessments suggest that another confrontation could extend beyond Iran, potentially drawing Hezbollah into a wider regional war. Yet despite growing American military activity near Iran’s coastline, Israeli security officials acknowledge that no clear indication has emerged that Trump has authorised an attack.
The uncertainty has not stopped Israel from preparing for one.
Israel’s Intelligence Agencies Are Updating Their Iran Target Lists
Elisha Ben Kimon, a military analyst for the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, reported that a series of military developments observed in recent weeks has raised questions about whether Washington is preparing to resume hostilities against Iran.
However, he cautioned that the available evidence remains inconclusive.
According to Ben Kimon, there is still no clear indication that Trump has decided to issue an order for military action. Nevertheless, the Israeli army is preparing for another possible campaign, both in terms of offensive operations and defending against Iranian retaliation.
The developments, he stressed, should still be regarded as preliminary indicators rather than confirmation of an imminent attack.
One area attracting particular attention is the movement of American military aircraft.
Citing assessments by the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, the analyst reported that aircraft movements appear to indicate a restructuring of the American aerial refuelling system in Europe.
Such arrangements could potentially provide a staging point for transferring US forces into the operational theatre overseen by US Central Command, which is responsible for American military operations across much of the Middle East.
For Israel, these movements are being closely monitored alongside Washington’s broader military reinforcements near Iran.
Meanwhile, Israeli military intelligence and the air force are continuing to update their lists of potential targets inside Iran.
According to the report, the targets are organised into several categories, including infrastructure, nuclear weapons, military reinforcements and missile systems.
The work has reportedly continued even on election day, reflecting the Israeli military establishment’s preparations for the possibility of renewed confrontation.
Netanyahu’s Objective Goes Beyond Another Round of Airstrikes
While American officials continue weighing their options, Netanyahu has reportedly been advocating a strategy aimed at overthrowing the Iranian government.
According to Ben Kimon, Netanyahu instructed Israeli security forces ahead of the elections to advance a plan for bringing down Iran’s political leadership in cooperation with Trump.
The Israeli prime minister subsequently intensified his messaging on the issue in the days preceding the vote.
Such an objective would require considerably more than another round of airstrikes.
The Israeli military analyst explained that a campaign aimed at removing Iran’s government would require a systematic plan developed by Mossad in coordination with other Israeli security agencies.
This suggests that Israel’s preparations are not limited to identifying military facilities for potential strikes. They also involve considering a broader strategy intended to produce political change inside Iran.
However, whether Washington would support such an objective remains uncertain, particularly as diplomatic contacts between the United States and Tehran continue.
Israel Fears Iran Could Strike First
Israeli security officials are also considering a scenario in which Iran initiates military action rather than waiting for another American or Israeli attack.
According to the assessment, worsening economic conditions inside Iran and concerns about potential US-Israeli military action could influence Tehran’s calculations.
The Israeli security establishment is reportedly taking into account the possibility that Iran may decide to attack Israel, particularly after having previously been caught off guard by two major opening strikes.
This possibility has added another dimension to Israeli military planning, with preparations extending beyond offensive operations to measures intended to withstand a potential Iranian response.
Nevertheless, Israeli officials acknowledge that predicting Trump’s next decision remains difficult.
A senior Israeli security source cited in the report said that even if the American president decides to resume military operations, an attack would not necessarily follow immediately.
Preparing military options, particularly for a broad campaign rather than a narrowly defined operation, takes time.
The analyst estimated that such preparations could require several weeks, even if the eventual campaign were intended to be relatively short.
Why Israel Wants a Shorter War This Time
Israeli military planners are reportedly inclined towards a concentrated campaign of limited duration rather than another prolonged confrontation.
That preference is influenced by the experience of Operation Lion’s Roar, which lasted 42 days, considerably longer than originally planned.
The duration of that campaign appears to have reinforced Israeli concerns about the operational and strategic difficulties of sustaining another extended military confrontation.
According to the analysis, Israel would naturally favour a short, intensive military campaign if fighting resumes.
However, the preparation of a large-scale operation remains a complex undertaking, regardless of how quickly its planners hope to conclude it.
The report also noted that diplomatic contacts are continuing alongside military preparations, indicating that the possibility of negotiations has not been abandoned.
Vance Pursues Diplomacy as Trump Keeps Military Threats on the Table
The military activity is unfolding alongside diplomatic communications between Washington and Tehran.
US Vice President JD Vance has reportedly delivered a message to Mohsen Rezaei, identified in the report as secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and a figure close to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
At the same time, Trump continues to threaten the possibility of renewed military action against Iran, potentially after the US midterm elections.
The simultaneous diplomatic and military developments reflect the uncertainty surrounding Washington’s next move.
While Vance’s communication represents an ongoing diplomatic channel, the continued American military preparations and Trump’s public threats leave open the possibility that negotiations could give way to another confrontation.
For Israel, the uncertainty means preparing for several scenarios without knowing which course the American administration will ultimately pursue.
Lebanon Could Become a Second Front
The possibility of renewed fighting with Iran is not the only scenario occupying Israeli military planners.
According to Ben Kimon, Israel is also preparing for the possibility that another military campaign could expand into a confrontation with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Israeli assessment claims that Hezbollah is transferring weapons while considering the possibility of renewed fighting against the Israeli army.
On the Lebanese front, Israel’s Northern Command is reportedly preparing to strengthen defensive positions for its forces operating in southern Lebanon.
The preparations include establishing observation posts, creating positions for directing military fire and developing plans to continue occupying Hezbollah strongholds.
These measures suggest that Israeli military planning is extending beyond a possible confrontation with Iran to include the prospect of simultaneous hostilities along Israel’s northern front.
Such an expansion would significantly complicate the military situation, potentially requiring Israeli forces to conduct operations against Iran while confronting Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The preparations also indicate that Israel is treating the Iranian and Lebanese fronts as potentially interconnected theatres of military confrontation.
Could Another War With Iran Reshape Israeli Politics?
Beyond the military implications, another confrontation with Iran could have major consequences for Israel’s domestic political landscape.
Ben Kimon argued that renewed fighting could alter the political agenda at a time when the formation of a new Israeli government remains unresolved.
A return to war could shift public attention towards national security and relations with Washington, potentially changing the balance of power between competing political factions.
The possibility is particularly relevant given the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of Israeli elections and negotiations over the next government.
In such circumstances, a renewed confrontation with Iran could become a central factor in Israel’s domestic political calculations.
The report raises the possibility that political rivals competing to form the next government may seek to use military developments involving Iran and Lebanon to advance their own partisan interests.
This creates an additional political dimension to Israel’s military preparations.
While the Israeli army continues updating its operational plans and Washington considers the possibility of another attack against Iran, domestic political competition could influence how developments are presented and exploited within Israel.
The growing military preparations on both the Iranian and Lebanese fronts are therefore unfolding alongside two separate political uncertainties: Trump’s unresolved decision on whether to resume military action and Israel’s continuing struggle over the formation of its next government.
