Misinformation targeting Sri Lanka’s Muslim community has long circulated on social media, fuelling tensions in the Buddhist-majority nation. In September, users falsely claimed that more than 380,000 Muslim babies are born annually while 750,000 mostly Buddhist Sinhalese women supposedly undergo abortions every year. Multiple experts told AFP the figures are inconsistent with the island nation’s birth rate and available data on abortions.
“Sinhala people, if you don’t have at least three children, Muslims will be the nation’s majority by 2060,” reads part of a Sinhalese-language Facebook post shared on September 8, 2026.
“385,000 Muslim births per year. 750,000 Sinhala abortions,” the caption states.
Similar claims have also been shared elsewhere on Facebook in Sri Lanka, whose 22 million people are predominantly ethnic Sinhalese, accounting for about 74 percent of the population and are largely Buddhist (archived link). Tamils make up 12.3 percent of the population, while Muslims account for 10.5 percent.
The country’s decades-long conflict, which claimed more than 100,000 lives, ended in May 2009 when government forces defeated Tamil Tiger rebels seeking an independent state in the island’s north and east.
But clashes between Buddhist and Muslim communities in 2018 triggered a nationwide state of emergency, while the Easter Sunday attacks in 2019 led to Muslims increasingly becoming targets of hate speech across online platforms.
Amid longstanding complaints of discrimination by minority groups, the UN office in Sri Lanka has reported a rise in harmful online content targeting minorities, particularly Muslims.
However, this claim is false.
Birth figures
Official data from Sri Lanka’s Department of Census and Statistics show the country has recorded fewer than 385,000 births annually for nearly two decades.
Births last exceeded that level in 2007, when 386,573 babies were born. Birth numbers have since trended lower, reaching a 25-year low of 214,570 in 2025.
Health Secretary Anil Jasinghe dismissed the claim via a WhatsApp message sent to AFP on September 26, 2026.
“How can there be 385,000 Muslim births in a year when all births for 2025 are 214,570?” he said.
“You can see that within 10 years, there is a drastic annual birth drop, from 336,097 in 2015 to 214,570 in 2025,” Jasinghe said.
Experts say it is difficult to determine the exact number of abortions in Sri Lanka, where the procedure is illegal except when necessary to save a woman’s life.
No reliable abortion data
Sri Lanka does not have a nationally representative survey on abortion, according to a representative of Sri Lanka’s Safe Abortion Coalition, who told AFP on October 1 that most research on the issue is qualitative.
The representative said, “The figure appears to be based on a 1998 study that extrapolated data from selected provinces, resulting in an estimation of around 240,000 abortions annually.” However, the study is nearly three decades old and can no longer be considered a reliable measure of abortion figures.
“The most comprehensive official figures are published in the National Health Bulletin, which records hospital admissions, discharges and causes of illness. The most recent data recorded only two deaths linked to septic abortions,” the representative said.
“I don’t think there’s any truth to this because there’s no way to know how many abortions take place in a day,” Paba Deshapriya of the Colombo-based Grassrooted Trust told AFP on September 18
Deshapriya described the claim as “racially targeted”, noting that abortion data do not distinguish whether those undergoing the procedure were Sinhalese, Tamil or Muslim women.
AFP has previously debunked false claims targeting Sri Lanka’s Muslims, including allegations that a Muslim doctor sterilised Sinhalese women, and has more recently fact-checked posts involving the country’s ethnic communities.
Source: AFP
