A secret assessment prepared by the US Central Intelligence Agency has reportedly warned that Israel is approaching the risk of civil conflict and political breakdown, as years of war in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran deepen political, economic and social divisions inside the country.
The assessment, whose contents were reported by Drop Site News, points to a volatile combination of economic pressure, political fragmentation, heavily armed and traumatised military veterans, anger over exemptions from military service and growing tensions ahead of Israel’s 27 October elections.
CIA Analysts Warn of an Internal Breaking Point
According to Drop Site News, the August assessment, titled “The Breach From Within”, was compiled by specialists in the CIA’s Red Cell, based on accounts from two US sources who described its contents to the outlet.
The agency’s alternative analysis unit reportedly prepared the assessment using a combination of publicly available information and US intelligence.
The analysis appears to focus primarily on Jewish Israeli citizens and does not account for Arab citizens, who make up around 20 per cent of the population.
CIA analysts reportedly identified several pressures converging ahead of the 27 October election: an economic crisis and rising military expenditure, the return of heavily armed veterans after prolonged combat, many suffering severe psychological trauma, growing anger over military exemptions granted to ultra-Orthodox men, escalating settler violence in the occupied West Bank and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s struggle to retain power.
According to the assessment, Netanyahu’s political battle is also contributing to a constitutional crisis.
CIA Red Cells are tasked with developing alternative assessments that challenge prevailing assumptions and identify groupthink or structural weaknesses within the intelligence community.
One US intelligence community source said the analysts behind the assessment were specialists on Israel and argued that their conclusions should not be dismissed as speculation.
“With the coming election and the divisions inside Israel, we should take their conclusion seriously, which is that Israel is one spark away from real internal conflict,” the source said.
Military Exemptions Deepen Social Divisions
The assessment reportedly identifies the question of who is expected to fight, and who is exempted from doing so, as one of the deepest emerging divisions in Israeli politics.
Historically, ultra-Orthodox Haredi men have received broad exemptions from military service while continuing to receive state subsidies.
That arrangement has become increasingly controversial as reserve soldiers have been repeatedly called back into military service.
The report notes that the Haredi refusal to serve is not driven by opposition to Israel’s wars. Haredi leaders instead argue that military service threatens their religious way of life and their commitment to Torah study.
However, after years in which reservists have repeatedly been taken away from their jobs and families, the exemptions have become a major source of resentment within Israeli society.
Economic Pressure Mounts After Years of War
The assessment also points to the economic burden imposed on Israeli families.
According to the report, households have borne the costs associated with Israel’s aggressive military policies as food prices reached record levels.
The cost of food, including fresh fruit and vegetables, has risen by 9.5 per cent over the past two years, worsening an already severe cost-of-living crisis after years of war.
Political fragmentation is also deepening.
The main Zionist parties opposed to Netanyahu remain divided over coalition leadership and political strategy, while one of the central attacks against the prime minister is the accusation that he bears responsibility for the security failure of 7 October.
According to the assessment, recent polling shows that both Netanyahu’s bloc and the anti-Netanyahu bloc are struggling to secure the 61 seats required to form a government.
Armed and Traumatised Veterans Raise Further Concerns
Sources cited in the report warned that the combination of political fragmentation and growing numbers of heavily armed veterans suffering psychological trauma has historical precedents.
One source drew a comparison with Germany’s Freikorps following the First World War.
“The German Freikorps were known for having traumatised soldiers who were armed and bloodthirsty,” the source said.
The source added: “I am not saying that Israel after Gaza is Germany after the First World War, but in my view there are certainly aspects of similarity between them.”
Growing International Isolation
Israel is also facing increasing isolation abroad, including declining support in the United States, a trend that Israeli officials themselves have reportedly described in private conversations as a long-term threat.
The August CIA assessment reportedly identified Israel’s growing status as a near-pariah state as another factor that could contribute to internal fragmentation.
According to a separate CIA assessment published by Capital & Empire in July, Israeli officials believe the US political consensus underpinning the alliance is beginning to erode.
The assessment said Israeli officials are concerned that continued dependence on billions of dollars in direct US military assistance could eventually become politically unacceptable in the United States.
Their response, according to the assessment, has been to pursue deeper integration with the US military, intelligence and security establishments, creating institutional ties that future US administrations would find more difficult to dismantle.
By the spring of this year, the proportion of Americans holding an unfavourable view of Israel had risen to 60 per cent, compared with 53 per cent a year earlier, according to a Pew Research Center survey cited in the report.
One intelligence community source said frustration was also growing inside US institutions over the political and material investment required to support Israel.
“The intelligence community, like America and the military, as everywhere else, is increasingly frustrated with the real and political capital invested in supporting Israel,” the source said.
“As we move further towards integrating our military and industrial capabilities with them, the frustration is growing because we are doing this for a country that dragged us into a war we are losing, a country that spies on us.”
