Although Tehran managed to secure food and medicine during both the 12-day war and the Ramadan war, the continued maritime blockade, the recent closure of airspace and airports in several countries to Iranian aircraft, and slower truck movements at land crossings have raised concerns among some Iranians.
For a growing number of households, that anxiety is beginning to affect everyday behaviour, with people storing additional food and medicine out of fear that the blockade on Iran could tighten further.
The concern has not emerged without reason. The escalating confrontation between the United States and Iran is threatening to disrupt what remains of the country’s supply routes, while restrictions on money transfers between Tehran and other capitals have contributed to unprecedented price increases.
During the United Nations General Assembly, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian denounced what he described as a US blockade that “prevents medicine and food from reaching the Iranian people”.
Over the past decade, Tehran has shifted from being an important regional exporter of agricultural and food products to becoming a major importer, particularly as US sanctions intensified. Iran’s trade balance in goods directly linked to food security has consequently moved into negative territory.
Supermarket Shelves Remain Stocked, but Anxiety Is Growing
A field tour of Tehran found that supermarket shelves were not empty, but concern was clearly influencing shoppers, particularly after calls circulated on social media urging people to store enough food for several days in preparation for another possible round of confrontation.
At one shopping centre, Ali, 51, was filling his trolley with rice, flour, pasta, legumes, cooking oil and canned food.
He said he only decided to stock up after becoming convinced that “the enemy is moving towards starving the Iranian people in order to turn them against the system”.
“This is not a war in the traditional sense. It targets the people in order to pressure the authorities. We have to prepare for any emergency,” he said.
Ali added that the suspension of flights to some neighbouring countries had disrupted imports of certain medicines and mobile phone headsets, contributing to recent price increases.
Haj Basandideh, 71, who owns a grocery store in Tehran, said he was confident that warehouses currently hold sufficient stocks of strategic basic goods. The larger problem, he said, is the daily rise in prices caused by the weakening national currency, which encourages him to purchase larger quantities before prices rise again.
He said that on some days he restricts customers to one bottle of cooking oil each so available supplies can be shared more widely.
According to him, none of the essential goods has completely disappeared from the market so far. Temporary shortages occasionally occur because of sudden increases in demand, but generally last only a few hours or, at most, a day.
Medicine Shortages Raise Deeper Concerns
Visits to several pharmacies in southern Tehran found that infant formula was unavailable in some locations, along with dozens of pharmaceutical products.
Although pharmacy staff said alternatives remained available, they expressed concern about the growing number of customers searching unsuccessfully for infant formula.
Mahsa, 23, who works at one of the pharmacies, said imported medicines “disappear quickly”, while people have increasingly begun buying certain products before they actually need them out of fear that they may later become unavailable.
She said health authorities had introduced “smart programmes” to monitor the quantities and types of medication purchased by each citizen.
The disruption has also affected Iranian farmers.
Mehran, 59, an apple farmer in the central province of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, said this year’s developments coinciding with harvest season had been unexpected.
“I sold only one-third of the crop, and only in the domestic market, because traders were unable to export it abroad,” he said.
According to Mehran, some neighbouring countries have halted trade with Iran in recent months and “no longer accept our goods as they did in previous years”.
“Even the countries that still trade with us have made truck crossings extremely slow. A truck that used to cross the border in one day now needs many days. Fruit that once crossed on time now arrives spoiled,” he said.
“The blockade has not only closed the sea and air. It has also affected the land routes, but without being publicly declared.”
Fear of a New War Is Changing the Public Mood
The shift taking place in Iran is also psychological.
Several people interviewed on Tehran’s Valiasr Street said they believed another round of war was inevitable and viewed the maritime and aerial blockade as a prelude to a more comprehensive effort to isolate the country.
They called on the government to act before such pressure becomes a permanent reality.
Mohsen, 23, an economics student at Allameh Tabataba’i University, said the aerial restrictions should not be viewed separately from the maritime blockade imposed since the ceasefire that ended the confrontation between Tehran and Washington.
He argued that the objective was to suffocate Iran’s economy and that the burden would ultimately fall on ordinary people.
Mohsen said rising prices and medicine shortages were natural consequences of both the blockade and uncertainty over what may come next.
He argued that Iran possessed several sources of leverage that should be used to break the maritime and aerial blockade before the pressure develops into a land blockade capable of further isolating Tehran.
The Blockade as an Economic Weapon
Strategic researcher Ali Reza Taghavi Nia said the confrontation was no longer merely approaching.
“Confrontation with the enemy is not only imminent. Some of its chapters have already begun, taking advantage of the country’s current economic situation,” he said.
Assessing the tensions between Tehran and Washington, Taghavi Nia said regional mediation efforts were “doomed to fail before they begin” because the minimum demands of the two sides remain fundamentally incompatible.
“In other words, there is no prospect of a political solution to the current crisis, and a blockade imposed by force will only be removed by force,” he said.
Taghavi Nia linked public behaviour to broader strategic assessments, arguing that Iranians were not reacting out of irrational panic.
“What people are doing today is not panic without reason. It comes from a correct assessment that war is coming. But what is striking is that most Iranians are not storing food. They are raising their voices and demanding that the blockade be broken,” he said.
“The people want the blockade broken, not for homes to become warehouses in a way people have never been accustomed to before.”
He described the blockade as “an economic weapon directed against the people to achieve what military operations failed to accomplish”.
Taghavi Nia argued that Tehran must take operational steps to break the maritime blockade after countering the aerial restrictions through political channels with friendly countries.
“We have many sources of strength, but using them requires a courageous political decision, not statements of condemnation,” he said.
Looking at the worst-case scenario, Taghavi Nia warned that deteriorating living conditions could trigger a wave of protests inside Iran.
“The enemy is counting on igniting chaos inside Iran because it believes that any military strike will fail to achieve its objectives without internal unrest,” he said.
