Iran has begun signalling that any confrontation with the United States may no longer remain confined to the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea, with senior Iranian officials now warning that the war’s geography could extend into the Indian Ocean and possibly beyond.
The threat opens the door to a much wider theatre of operations involving strategic maritime corridors, military bases, logistical assets and critical infrastructure stretching across large parts of Asia and the Middle East.
The warning was voiced by Yahya Rahim Safavi, military adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, who said on Thursday that any new US attacks on Iran would lead to an expansion of the war into the Indian Ocean.
In remarks to Fars News Agency, Safavi said that with the conflict extending from the Gulf to the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, “it is possible that it will widen to the Indian Ocean, perhaps beyond that”.
At the same time, Tehran has coupled its military escalation with a fresh negotiating proposal to Washington that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and resuming talks with the United States.
On Friday, Araghchi said Iran had presented the administration of US President Donald Trump with a new seven-day plan on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meetings in New York.
He said the proposal includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz on the seventh day and resuming negotiations aimed at reaching a lasting settlement, provided that the United States commits to the conditions which he said both sides had agreed to in the memorandum of understanding signed in June.
According to a Financial Times report, the Iranian proposal links reopening the strait to a new negotiating track that would later move towards a more durable settlement.
That has raised questions about what exactly Iran could target in the Indian Ocean in a way that would threaten US interests and increase pressure on Washington.
What follows is a look at the targets Iran may seek to use to pressure the United States and inflict losses that could force it to halt the war.
What Could Iran Target in the Indian Ocean?
Diego Garcia
If the confrontation shifts into the Indian Ocean, Diego Garcia would likely be the primary target for Iran.
The base is one of the United States’ most important military assets in that region. It is located in the Chagos Archipelago in the Indian Ocean, belongs to Britain, and is used jointly with the United States. It lies around 4,000 kilometres from the Iranian coast.
The base has a major geographic advantage, as it can host long-range strategic aircraft and bombers, warships, and a logistical hub for US operations in the region.
It has hosted long-range US bombers, especially B-2 and B-52 aircraft, and serves as an operational support point for missions extending into the Middle East.
Reports had previously claimed that on 20 March Iran launched ballistic missiles towards the island, although Tehran denied this. The reports nevertheless suggested the possibility of undeclared Iranian missile capabilities able to reach long distances.
The reported launch drew attention because of the vast distance between Iranian territory and the island. Experts at the time said Iran may have modified Khorramshahr missiles by reducing their payload in order to extend their range.
Maritime Shipping Network
The Indian Ocean forms a vital part of the shipping network linking the Arabian Gulf, the Arabian Sea, Bab al-Mandab and the Red Sea with markets in Asia, Europe and Africa.
As escalation intensified in Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, countries turned to alternative routes towards Europe and Africa from Asia, and vice versa. Any targeting of these routes would deepen the global shipping crisis.
According to a report by Asia Times, 6 million barrels of oil a day head to Asia through Bab al-Mandab and then into Indian Ocean waters. Any attacks in that area would worsen the energy crisis in a particularly sensitive part of the world.
This would be especially significant for India, one of the largest importers of Gulf oil, as well as Japan, South Korea and China, all of which rely to varying degrees on energy imports passing through Asian sea lanes.
Any expansion of the confrontation into the Arabian Sea or areas closer to South Asia would therefore not be just a wider military development. It could become a crisis in energy supply chains and global trade, especially if disruption in Hormuz coincides with continued danger in Bab al-Mandab.
The war around the Strait of Hormuz has already caused a sharp rise in shipping and insurance costs for other destinations. Longer alternative routes have become more expensive and more time-consuming, and any attacks in the Indian Ocean would multiply those costs dramatically.
US Naval Presence
Iranian threats concerning the Indian Ocean mean that all US naval assets in the area could become exposed to attack.
This region is one of the major zones of US military influence around the world, and any confrontation there would force American forces to spread their defensive capabilities across wider and more distant areas instead of concentrating them near Iran and the Arabian Sea.
That, in turn, would complicate US military operations.
Undersea Cables
The possible threats are not limited to surface targets. They could also affect hidden infrastructure that has increasingly entered strategic calculations in the region, including undersea cables.
Research by the Observer Research Foundation said Iran has shown growing interest in undersea cable infrastructure passing through the Gulf as part of its strategic influence.
The cables crossing the region include routes linking the Gulf with Asia and Europe, and any extension of attacks into the Indian Ocean could also affect undersea cables west of India along wider maritime routes.
The Target Zone Could Expand Further
In a parallel development, another Iranian threat emerged relating to regional airspace.
Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, threatened to paralyse civilian air traffic across the region if Iran is unable to operate its own flights because of the US blockade.
He said: “Our strategy in this regard is clear: either the region’s skies remain open to everyone, or they remain open to no one. If Iran is deprived of the ability to fly and access airport services, then no other country in the region will enjoy that ability either.”
