Greater Türkiye or Greater Israel?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently said that after Iran, Israel would face a radical Sunni axis.

Within Israel’s evolving security doctrine, a new strategic threat is taking shape, led by a Sunni axis that begins with Türkiye, passes through Syria and extends as far as Saudi Arabia.

The most intense arena of Israel’s emerging confrontation with this Sunni axis is Syria, where the lines of conflict are becoming increasingly clear. Israeli escalation across Syrian territory is intended not only as deterrence, but also as a rejection of any expansion of Turkish military influence or presence inside Syria.

Israel’s strike on Abu al-Duhur airbase in northern Syria carried a message to Ankara before Damascus. It was a message with the weight of war behind it, even as Türkiye appeared to absorb it with strategic restraint and tightly controlled tension.

Syria After Assad

Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Tel Aviv has made little effort to conceal its expansionist project in Syria. Israel is imposing new geopolitical realities across Syrian territory through occupation, territorial expansion, a reversal of the 1974 agreement, an ongoing military presence and Israeli settlers raising the Star of David over hills and elevated areas in southern Syria.

At the same time, Israel is pursuing decisive deterrence against any Turkish military influence inside the country.

From the Israeli perspective, Türkiye is the next enemy after Iran. It has increasingly come to be viewed as a threat to Israel and its national security, with Israeli military and political figures now openly referring to Türkiye as an enemy state.

Iran has departed the Syrian arena, and Türkiye has effectively taken its place as Israel’s principal rival there. Under Israel’s emerging security doctrine, Tel Aviv does not intend to allow Ankara to establish any military foothold in Syria.

From the Israeli standpoint, Turkish-Syrian relations should remain confined to trade and diplomacy, although geography makes it impossible to sever the deep and unavoidable connection between the two neighbouring countries.

When Israel bombed Abu al-Duhur airbase in northern Syria, Turkish officers had reportedly left the facility only hours earlier. They had been discussing with Syrian counterparts the rehabilitation of the military airbase as part of a Turkish plan to rebuild the Syrian army and equip it militarily and logistically.

Israel is therefore seeking to block Türkiye’s path into Syria. Under this emerging equation, any geopolitical presence in Syria is effectively subject to a signal from Tel Aviv and cannot proceed without Israeli coordination.

Competing Projects Over Syria

Türkiye considers itself the principal guardian of the Syrian government and state. Ankara’s geopolitical ambitions in Syria have never been limited to commercial relations, turning the country into an arena for a broader contest over influence and control.

Netanyahu appeared in a video several days ago standing on the summit of Mount Hermon, looking towards Mount Qasioun and the presidential palace in Damascus.

Netanyahu and Defence Minister Israel Katz appeared to be looking beyond Damascus itself. According to Israeli commentary, Netanyahu’s view encompasses the entirety of Syrian geography, stretching from the south towards the east and north.

In southern Syria, Israel has established a security belt intended to protect its northern frontier and create an extended buffer zone inside Syrian territory. Israel has also adopted a clear strategic position regarding Syria’s future military capacity, seeking to prevent the country from acquiring an air force, missile capabilities or armoured forces, and even from rebuilding a national army.

Israel’s project to divide Syria has been postponed for regional reasons, but the plans have not disappeared from the desks of Netanyahu and the Israeli military establishment.

The Druze card, with its full geographical and geopolitical implications, remains in Netanyahu’s hands. The article argues that Druze factions have declared loyalty to Israel, sought separation from Syria and called for incorporation into Israel. Israel has also sought to activate minority issues as a pressure tool capable of obstructing Syrian national integration and unity as the country attempts to rebuild its state and society.

Israel’s Wider Regional Strategy

In its confrontation with both the Sunni and Shia axes, Israel is seeking to establish a six-party alignment led by Tel Aviv and involving India, Greece, Cyprus, Ethiopia and Arab states.

Across the region’s wars and political struggles, Netanyahu has moved from one arena to another, pursuing what Israel views as the expanding influence of Türkiye, which stands at the head of the emerging Sunni axis. The contest stretches from Syria to the Red Sea, Djibouti, Yemen and Lebanon.

Turkish policy has meanwhile entered sensitive and highly contested regional arenas through less visible channels, including areas directly adjacent to Israel.

Ankara has also sought to reopen channels between rival parties in Syria and Lebanon. In relations between the government in Damascus and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Türkiye has helped create a path for exchanging positive messages between the two sides. Ankara has also become involved in efforts to untangle Lebanon’s complex political crises.

As the regional picture develops, Syria increasingly appears to be the central arena of the Turkish-Israeli confrontation, driven by ideological, historical and geopolitical forces.

The critical question remains where US President Donald Trump stands amid this struggle.

The broader conclusion is that the battle over Syria is ultimately a battle over the regional order itself. The question is who will fall, and who will remain on the stage.