Iran is treating the current lull as an opportunity to rebuild its military and security capabilities and prepare for the possibility of a broader confrontation with the United States and its allies, while considering limited operations rather than relying on the memorandum of understanding signed last June.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is studying new options for escalation, including targeting internet cables in the Gulf region, fuelling political unrest in countries such as Kuwait and Bahrain, and potentially carrying out ground operations in Kuwait.
According to intelligence cited by the Wall Street Journal, Tehran has used the period of relative calm following the signing of the memorandum to reorganise its security and military institutions, strengthen its missile and drone capabilities, and expand counter-espionage operations.
At the same time, the Revolutionary Guard has been granted greater influence within Iran’s conventional military establishment.
Plans to Raise the Cost of Confrontation
Officials familiar with the intelligence said Arab intelligence agencies had detected communications between the Revolutionary Guard and its allies in Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon indicating that Tehran was preparing to broaden the confrontation and increase its cost for the United States and its allies.
The potential measures include targeting energy facilities and ports across Gulf states.
The newspaper said Iran had also reinforced missile positions, naval weapons and drone deployments overlooking the Red Sea.
It had also provided the Houthi movement with intelligence and lists of potential targets in Saudi Arabia, alongside an escalation in attacks targeting maritime traffic in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the report, Tehran has also increased attacks on US forces, targeting positions in Jordan and vessels in the Gulf.
These developments come as Gulf states grow increasingly concerned about the possible expansion of the confrontation and the ability of Iranian missiles to penetrate US defences and reach targets in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain.
Security Reshuffle and a More Offensive Posture
In another sign that Tehran is preparing for a new confrontation, the Wall Street Journal said Iran’s leadership had reshuffled key positions within the security establishment over the past week, appointing figures from the old guard to sensitive posts.
Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has also strengthened the Revolutionary Guard’s influence over the army and pushed for a more offensive approach, including preparations to conduct operations inside the territories of adversaries.
The changes appear to reflect a broader effort to prepare Iran’s military and security structures for a conflict that Tehran increasingly views as unresolved rather than concluded.
Prospects for a Lasting Agreement Remain Limited
At the same time, the chances of reaching a permanent agreement to end the war appear limited amid continuing distrust between Washington and Tehran.
The newspaper reported that Iran is rebuilding its military facilities and restoring access to missile bases faster than expected, while Gulf states are preparing for the possibility of a prolonged war and the extended disruption to energy supplies that could accompany it.
Alan Eyre, a former US diplomat and nuclear negotiator with Iran, said: “The baseline is war”, adding that Tehran would remain on military alert in anticipation of another attack.
The Wall Street Journal said the Iranian leadership is treating the current phase as a period of preparation for a larger confrontation.
Figures close to Iran’s negotiating team also believe that the negotiations may amount to little more than a temporary truce before another round of conflict.
