Iran has raised its military and security readiness amid the possibility that the war with the United States and its regional allies could widen, using the recent period of relative calm to reorganise its institutions and strengthen its missile and drone capabilities.
At the same time, movements by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran-aligned forces are raising the prospect of another round of escalation.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran’s leadership has treated the calm following the memorandum of understanding signed with Washington last June as an opportunity to reposition its military and security structures, amid intelligence indicating that Tehran is preparing for the possibility of a broader confrontation with the United States and its allies in the region.
In a report by Benoit Faucon and Summer Said, the newspaper cited Iranian and Arab officials as saying that Iran used the de-escalation period to reorganise its security and military institutions, strengthen its missile and drone capabilities, expand counter-espionage efforts and give the Revolutionary Guard greater influence within the conventional military establishment.
Officials familiar with the intelligence said Arab agencies had detected communications between the Revolutionary Guard and Iran-aligned militias in Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon. These communications were viewed as an indication that preparations were underway to broaden the confrontation and increase its cost for Washington and its regional partners.
The newspaper said those preparations include the possible targeting of energy facilities and ports in Gulf states, while Tehran has reinforced missile positions, naval weapons and drone deployments overlooking the Red Sea.
According to the report, Iran has also provided the Houthis with intelligence and lists of potential targets inside Saudi Arabia, alongside an escalation in attacks targeting maritime traffic in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian actions have not been limited to that front. The Wall Street Journal said Tehran has also intensified attacks on US forces, targeting positions in Jordan and vessels in the Gulf.
Meanwhile, Gulf states have grown increasingly concerned about the ability of Iranian missiles to penetrate US defence systems and reach targets in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain.
Greater Influence for the Revolutionary Guard
The newspaper said Iran’s leadership made changes to key positions within the security establishment over the past week, appointing figures with backgrounds in previous wars and internal crackdowns to sensitive posts.
It added that Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has simultaneously moved to strengthen the Revolutionary Guard’s influence within the army and push for a more offensive policy, including preparations to conduct operations inside adversaries’ territories.
According to the report, the Revolutionary Guard is studying a range of new escalation options.
These include targeting internet cables in the Gulf region, fuelling political unrest in countries such as Kuwait and Bahrain, and potentially carrying out ground operations inside Kuwait.
Temporary Truce or Preparation for Another Confrontation?
Amid these developments, the prospects of reaching a permanent agreement to end the war appear limited, while trust between Washington and Tehran remains almost entirely absent.
The Wall Street Journal said Iran is rebuilding its military facilities and restoring access to missile bases faster than expected.
At the same time, Gulf states have begun preparing for the possibility that the war could continue for an extended period, along with the resulting disruption to energy supplies.
Alan Eyre, a former US diplomat and nuclear negotiator with Iran, said: “The baseline is war”, adding that Tehran would remain on military alert in anticipation of another attack.
The newspaper concluded that Iran’s leadership is treating the current phase as a period of preparation for a larger confrontation.
People close to Iran’s negotiating team also believe the current negotiations may amount to little more than a temporary truce before another round of conflict.
