UAE lobbying networks and Abu Dhabi-funded influence groups have begun an intensive campaign within political circles and decision-making centres in the United States and Europe aimed at undermining the Mecca mutual defence agreement between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan.
The campaign is also seeking to reinforce the UAE’s image as a more reliable security partner for the West than the emerging defence arrangement centred around Riyadh.
According to corroborating intelligence sources, the Emirati effort is focused on raising doubts about whether the Mecca Agreement can develop into an effective military alliance, while exploiting the natural weaknesses faced by any newly established defence framework in an attempt to prevent it from gaining international legitimacy, attracting new members or building joint military and intelligence institutions.
Targeting the Agreement Before It Consolidates
Messages being promoted within Western political circles focus on differences between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan in their approaches towards Iran, the varying weapons systems used by the three countries, Pakistan’s heavy reliance on Chinese military equipment, and previous tensions between Türkiye and some Western partners.
UAE lobbying networks are seeking to turn these observations into a political campaign aimed at convincing Western decision-makers that the Mecca Agreement is unreliable, unnecessary or potentially destabilising.
The campaign shifts the discussion away from an assessment of the agreement’s military and technical dimensions and towards influencing how Washington and European capitals perceive it before Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan have had the opportunity to establish its institutions and define its practical character.
The UAE has spent years building extensive lobbying networks and relationships with political and security institutions, research centres and decision-makers across the United States and Europe.
Emirati diplomat Lana Nusseibeh recently held consultations with officials in a European country allied with the United States. One official who participated in the meeting offered a blunt assessment of the Emirati-Israeli alliance, saying that “the UAE is completely aligned with Israel” and that the partnership “has no limits”.
The meeting reflects the breadth of channels through which Abu Dhabi operates within Western political institutions at a time when competing visions for the future of regional security are emerging.
Observers link the timing of the Emirati campaign to the recent establishment of the Mecca Agreement, arguing that the framework remains at a stage where its trajectory can still be influenced before it develops into an integrated military system.
They argue that the commencement of joint military exercises, the development of intelligence-sharing mechanisms, the integration of communications systems, links between defence industries and the accession of new countries could all make the agreement considerably more difficult to undermine in the future.
The UAE therefore has an interest in weakening the agreement’s political credibility during its early stages, before cooperation between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan develops into a security structure that would be difficult to reverse.
Two Competing Regional Security Models
The Mecca Agreement is increasingly being presented as a model distinct from the Emirati-Israeli partnership.
While the alliance between Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv benefits from advanced military, intelligence and technological cooperation, the Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani agreement possesses broader political, demographic and military potential.
The agreement brings together Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan, three states with considerable military and political weight.
Türkiye possesses the second-largest military in NATO, Saudi Arabia is the largest Arab economy represented in the G20, while Pakistan possesses the only nuclear arsenal among Muslim-majority countries.
The comparison between the two models has therefore become part of the political contest being waged by Abu Dhabi.
The UAE and Israel have developed growing military and intelligence cooperation since the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020, while the American war on Iran has further strengthened that cooperation.
In recent days, the establishment of a joint UAE-Israel fund to finance defence acquisitions has been disclosed, alongside broad agreements and understandings covering cooperation in air defence, intelligence and military technology.
This model is being presented as more operationally ready than the Mecca Agreement because of the compatibility between many Emirati and Israeli military systems and the integration of both countries into the US security architecture.
Political Limits of the Emirati-Israeli Alliance
The Emirati-Israeli partnership, however, faces major political constraints, particularly because of widespread opposition to cooperation with Israel across the Arab and Islamic worlds amid the war in Gaza.
This creates a fundamental contrast between the two models: an Emirati-Israeli alliance that is more developed operationally, and a Mecca Agreement that has greater potential for expansion and broader political acceptance across the Muslim world.
The Mecca Agreement also possesses greater strategic depth because of the combined military, economic and human resources of the three participating countries and the possibility of expanding the framework to include other states.
This represents a source of strategic concern for Abu Dhabi, which has spent recent years building a regional model based on a network of bilateral partnerships with the United States, Israel, India and other countries.
If the Mecca Agreement develops into a broader defence framework centred around Saudi Arabia, it could shift the centre of gravity within the regional security architecture and reduce the sphere of influence the UAE has accumulated over recent years.
