The fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran is approaching a critical point, with only days remaining before its Monday expiry and negotiations stalled over extending it into a more durable agreement that could bring the war between the two sides to an end.
A senior White House official, speaking to reporters on condition of anonymity about the negotiations, said the situation between Washington and Tehran remained “stalled”, adding that as of Friday afternoon he had received no indication that an agreement had been reached to extend the truce.
“It does not matter how close or how far apart we are,” the official said. “What matters is whether Iran wants to sit at the negotiating table and reach an agreement. At the moment, it has not done so.”
Disputes Over Funds and the Strait of Hormuz
According to a report published by Politico, Iranian negotiators have also indicated that talks remain deadlocked over efforts to revive the temporary agreement signed by US President Donald Trump in France last June.
The main points of disagreement centre on the fate of frozen Iranian assets, arrangements governing ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz, and the continuing US blockade affecting maritime traffic linked to the strategic waterway.
The developments come amid conflicting reports over the future of the ceasefire. Reuters reported on 12 August, citing a senior Iranian official, that negotiations had made no progress on either extending the ceasefire or reviving the temporary agreement.
By contrast, Pakistani government sources said Washington and Tehran had reached a preliminary understanding on extending the truce, although its duration had not yet been finalised.
“Ceasefire in Exchange for Blockade”
James Jeffrey, a former US ambassador who served in the Middle East under three US administrations, including during Trump’s first term, said maintaining the current “ceasefire in exchange for blockade” arrangement could remain the least costly option for both sides at this stage.
Jeffrey said both Washington and Tehran still appeared to believe that maintaining the status quo could serve their interests, while the alternatives, whether renewed military escalation or major concessions, appeared less acceptable to either side.
In recent days, the Iranian leadership has raised its demands linked to the ceasefire. These now include compensation for damage caused by the war, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and an end to threats directed against Iran and its allies and proxies in the region.
Divisions Within Iran’s Decision-Making Circles
The obstacles facing negotiations are not limited to disagreements between Washington and Tehran. According to the US official, the Iranian side is also dealing with internal complications arising from multiple centres of decision-making.
The official said decision-making in Iran involves the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the religious establishment and the “government leadership”, noting that reaching an understanding with one of these parties does not necessarily mean the agreement will receive the approval of the others.
“We know that we need everyone to approve it for the agreement to be effective. They know our position, while we often do not know theirs. They keep changing the terms of the negotiations,” he said.
The comments reflect the difficulty of reaching a final formula capable of securing agreement across Iran’s different power centres as the diplomatic window continues to narrow.
Hormuz Emerges as a New Flashpoint
The risk of the ceasefire collapsing is increasing as attacks in the region continue. Two tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz were attacked by drones on Thursday, renewing concerns over maritime security and energy supplies through one of the world’s most important shipping routes.
The Strait of Hormuz has taken on particular importance in the negotiations after maritime traffic through the waterway became one of the central points of contention between Washington and Tehran, amid continuing US measures affecting shipping movements.
If Monday’s deadline passes without an agreement, the deadlock is expected to continue amid fears of a return to military escalation, while political and economic pressure inside the United States is also mounting.
The ceasefire crisis comes at a sensitive time for the US administration, with the country less than three months away from congressional midterm elections and voters facing economic consequences linked to the war, particularly higher fuel prices.
After declining for a period, petrol prices in the United States began rising again this week alongside an increase in global oil prices, driven by concerns that disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could continue.
Washington and Tehran therefore face a decisive test before the ceasefire expires. Diplomatic efforts must either overcome disputes over sanctions, frozen assets and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, or the failure of negotiations could reopen the door to renewed military escalation in the region.
