The United Arab Emirates is facing growing criticism over its deepening security and military alliance with “Israel”, a course that has moved Abu Dhabi beyond political and economic normalisation towards an unprecedented level of strategic dependence on Tel Aviv, placing it increasingly at odds with its Gulf and Arab surroundings.
Recent regional developments have shown that the Emirati leadership has chosen to strengthen “Israel’s” role as a primary security partner rather than reconsider the normalisation process. This has raised mounting questions about the implications for the future of the Gulf, the Palestinian cause and Abu Dhabi’s position within the broader Arab system.
Analysts argue that the UAE has effectively abandoned the policy of “strategic hedging” it followed for years, which was based on maintaining balanced relations with the United States, China, Russia and Iran. In its place, Abu Dhabi has shifted towards a more clearly defined security axis centred on Washington and Tel Aviv.
From Strategic Hedging to Security Alignment
Cinzia Bianco, a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said Abu Dhabi now believes its policy of engagement with Tehran has failed to achieve its objectives and is moving towards what it describes as “strategic autonomy” through stronger security alliances.
This shift coincided with comments by Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, who acknowledged that the expectation that economic interests would improve relations with Iran had not succeeded as anticipated. He also suggested that Israeli influence in the Gulf is likely to become more prominent in the coming period.
However, observers argue that this course does not represent genuine strategic autonomy. Instead, they say it reflects Abu Dhabi’s growing dependence on Israeli military and technological capabilities, allowing Tel Aviv to become a direct actor in Gulf security calculations.
Relations between the UAE and “Israel” have gradually developed into broad security, intelligence and military cooperation, including defence technology, surveillance systems and cyber security.
Assessments by Israeli research centres indicate strong convergence between Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv over the management of regional affairs, particularly through more interventionist policies beyond their borders under the pretext of confronting threats.
This direction has prompted concern over an expanded Israeli-backed Emirati role in sensitive regions such as the Red Sea, the Horn of Africa and Yemen. Regional parties have accused Abu Dhabi of seeking to consolidate its influence through political, military and economic networks.
Growing Divisions Within the Gulf
One of the clearest consequences of the Emirati-Israeli alliance has been the escalation of divisions within the Gulf. Abu Dhabi’s calculations increasingly differ from those of other Gulf states that favour de-escalation and diplomacy rather than complete security alignment with “Israel”.
Experts warn that the UAE’s growing attachment to Tel Aviv could place it in a position increasingly disconnected from its Gulf and Arab environment, particularly as broad popular opposition to normalisation continues amid the Israeli war on Gaza.
Researchers believe Abu Dhabi is betting on the formation of a new US-led axis bringing together “Israel”, the UAE and other partners around technology, security and economic cooperation.
However, this project remains burdened by major political problems because it ignores the roots of the Palestinian-Israeli struggle and treats security and economic integration as substitutes for addressing occupation and Palestinian rights.
In response, other regional powers have begun seeking counterbalances by strengthening military and political cooperation among themselves, suggesting that the region may be entering a new phase of rivalry between competing blocs.
Iran also views the expansion of the Israeli security presence near its borders as a direct threat. This has increased concerns that the UAE-Israel alliance may heighten regional tension rather than produce stability.
Gulf affairs specialists warn that dependence on external protection has historically failed to create stable security systems. They argue that long-term solutions require regional arrangements designed to reduce the risk of confrontation rather than importing external conflicts into the Gulf.
The Palestinian Cause Bears the Cost
The Palestinian cause remains one of the main casualties of the UAE’s new course.
When Abu Dhabi signed its normalisation agreement with “Israel”, it claimed that establishing formal relations would give it greater influence and enable it to defend Palestinian rights more effectively.
However, the Israeli war of genocide on Gaza exposed the limits of that claim. The Emirati-Israeli alliance continued despite the killing of tens of thousands of Palestinians and growing international accusations that “Israel” had committed widespread violations.
Observers believe the UAE’s expected role in post-war arrangements will focus more heavily on engineering a new political and security order that serves the interests of the normalisation axis, rather than Palestinian aspirations to end the occupation and establish an independent state.
Long-Term Strategic Risks
The UAE has chosen a high-risk path by tying a central part of its security policy to “Israel”.
This alignment may provide Abu Dhabi with short-term military and technological advantages, but it also exposes the country to long-term strategic challenges.
With tensions with Iran increasing, the gap between Abu Dhabi and Arab public opinion widening, and Emirati dependence on Tel Aviv deepening, the UAE is entering a new phase that could reshape its regional position.
The central question is the political price Abu Dhabi may ultimately pay for transforming “Israel” from an occupation state widely rejected across the Arab world into a central security partner in the Gulf.
