Iran has strengthened its ability to strike US military bases and critical infrastructure across the Middle East through a combination of advances in its missile programme, access to satellite imagery and military tactics influenced by Russia’s experience in the war in Ukraine, according to a report by The Guardian.
The newspaper’s defence and security editor, Dan Sabbagh, said recent Iranian attacks demonstrated a marked increase in precision and destructive capability. At the same time, they exposed potential weaknesses in US air defence systems deployed throughout the region.
The report cited the attack on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, which was protected by the advanced US Terminal High Altitude Area Defence system, known as THAAD. Three US soldiers were killed in the strike.
Satellite images published by Iranian media showed damage to several facilities at the base, prompting the US Department of Defence to investigate why the defence system failed to intercept the attack.
The incident, according to the report, demonstrated that Iran continues to possess advanced missile capabilities and that its leadership has become more willing to use them in a confrontation with the United States.
A Major Shift in Iran’s Missile Capabilities
The report quoted Andreas Krieg, a researcher at King’s College London, as saying that Iran’s missile capabilities had undergone a “genuine transformation”.
He attributed this shift to simultaneous advances in intelligence gathering, improved missile guidance systems, greater manoeuvrability and the development of more sophisticated methods for planning complex attacks.
The report said these advances followed years of work to modernise Iran’s ballistic missile programme. US intelligence assessments indicate that a substantial part of the programme remained operational despite previous strikes that Washington claimed had significantly weakened Iran’s military capabilities.
The Possible Role of Chinese Satellite Imagery
The report examined the potential role of Chinese satellite imagery in improving Iran’s ability to identify targets.
It noted that the United States had imposed sanctions on Chinese companies accused of supplying satellite images of US military sites in the region, including bases containing aircraft and air defence systems such as Patriot and THAAD.
However, Siddharth Kaushal, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, offered a more cautious assessment. He argued that Iran had largely focused on fixed targets whose locations could be identified through commercially available satellite imagery, without requiring classified intelligence from China.
Kaushal said there was no clear evidence to date that Iran had used foreign intelligence support to strike moving targets or highly sensitive operational assets.
Questions Over US Base Defences
The report raised questions about whether US bases are adequately prepared to confront Iranian ballistic missiles and drones.
According to the analysis, many of these bases were originally designed to withstand attacks by irregular armed groups rather than large-scale missile strikes carried out by a state possessing an advanced arsenal.
The wide range of sites requiring protection further complicates the challenge. These include military bases, oil installations, refineries and desalination plants, making comprehensive protection extremely difficult.
Russian-Inspired Attack Tactics
The report also considered whether Iran had benefited from Russian military experience, particularly after similarities were observed between some Iranian attack methods and tactics used by Moscow in Ukraine.
One of the most notable methods involves deploying drones first to exhaust air defence systems or divert their attention, followed by the launch of more powerful and accurate ballistic missiles against principal targets.
Experts said this similarity did not necessarily indicate that Russia had directly trained Iran. Instead, it may reflect both countries studying modern warfare and indirectly exchanging military experience.
Multiple Navigation Systems and Advanced Warheads
On the technical level, the report said Iranian ballistic missiles rely on a combination of global navigation systems.
They reportedly use the US GPS alongside China’s BeiDou and Russia’s GLONASS simultaneously, increasing the accuracy of their guidance.
Some Iranian missiles are now also equipped with warheads capable of adjusting their trajectory during descent. They use thermal and optical sensor-based guidance during the final stage of an attack, reducing the effectiveness of electronic jamming.
The report described these capabilities as a growing challenge to US air defences, particularly as interceptor missile stocks for the Patriot and THAAD systems face increasing pressure following intensive use in recent military operations.
Cooperation, Not a Formal Alliance
The report concluded that growing ties between Iran, Russia, China and North Korea have become more visible in certain military and technological fields.
However, this relationship does not constitute an integrated military alliance comparable to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.
According to experts, the cooperation is based more on shared interests and the exchange of expertise than on a joint defence structure. Relations between the four countries remain far from the level of unified military coordination that characterises traditional alliances.
The report concluded that Iran has built a more advanced offensive capability in recent years by combining precision missiles, drones and improved intelligence gathering. This development is forcing the United States and its allies to reassess their defensive capabilities across the Gulf region.
