Just four months ago, Benjamin Netanyahu saw the political dream he had pursued for decades come true: a joint United States and Israeli war against Iran.
But what was described in Israel as the “final” battle against its arch-enemy did not unfold as Netanyahu had hoped. The temporary agreement Donald Trump reached with Tehran was met with fierce anger in Israeli circles, where critics described it as a resounding strategic failure sponsored by an American leader who lacked the willpower to see the campaign through.
Washington, in turn, responded sharply. Vice President JD Vance warned Israel that it needed to “wake up and realise the reality of its situation”.
Dan Shapiro, a senior American official and former US ambassador to Israel, commented on Trump and Netanyahu by saying: “They overestimated their power, and both fell victim to their own illusions. They misjudged what they could achieve and squandered the most favourable strategic position available to them.”
Netanyahu’s High Point With Trump
Netanyahu was warmly received and repeatedly honoured during his meetings with Trump after the latter returned to the White House. The two leaders met at least seven times between the American president’s inauguration and the outbreak of the war.
Yet they have not appeared together at any event since the decisive meeting in February, which paved the way for the conflict.
As part of its understandings with Iran, Washington also sought to impose a ceasefire in the confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. This triggered angry protests among residents of northern Israel and far-right ministers, who saw the move as a violation of sovereignty.
Netanyahu, however, insisted that his forces would not withdraw from the “security zone” that Israel had unilaterally declared. This made the Lebanon file a central pillar in the tense peace talks between the United States and Iran.
A Growing Gap Between Washington and Tel Aviv
The memorandum of understanding reached last week between Washington and Tehran offered the clearest indication so far of a radical divergence between American and Israeli interests.
In addition to including the Lebanese front, the draft text made no reference to Iran’s ballistic missile programme or Tehran’s support for allied factions across the region, despite Israel’s long-standing and urgent demands that these issues be included in any agreement.
A former senior Israeli official said the nuclear file had only been addressed “in ink on paper”, without any strict Iranian commitment to eliminate its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
Based on the course of the talks and Iran’s steps to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran appears to be on track to receive American exemptions allowing it to sell oil and access frozen assets, while the same regime remains firmly in power.
“It is difficult to overstate the scale of this strategic disaster,” the former Israeli official said. Comparing the current situation with conditions before the war, he added that “the picture today is certainly worse, especially since we are no longer aligned with the United States as we once were.”
From “Hero” to Strategic Liability
This marks a sharp decline in Netanyahu’s standing compared with the end of last year, when the American president described him as a “hero” of the war during a meeting at Mar-a-Lago.
“Without your leadership, Israel might no longer exist,” Trump said at the time.
History may yet prove that this moment represented the peak of Netanyahu’s offensive security doctrine, which produced a series of battlefield gains across the Middle East, at an enormous human cost, following Hamas’s attack on 7 October 2032.
From Lebanon to Gaza and Syria, Israel’s enemies were heavily weakened by the beginning of this year. The Israeli army took control of several “buffer zones” and struck wherever it wanted, largely under the cover of ceasefire agreements that fully served its interests and were sponsored by Washington.
At the same time, the Iranian regime was still reeling from the 12-day war it fought against Israel in 2025, while its economy continued to erode.
Six months after that war ended, mass popular protests shook the foundations of the Iranian regime. Trump’s promise to support the Iranian people quickly turned into a full-scale military attack, driven and encouraged by Netanyahu, after previous American presidents had repeatedly rejected the Israeli leader’s calls for a military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
Shapiro, now a fellow at the Atlantic Council, recalled that period by saying: “The protests erupted and the regime seemed on the verge of collapse. They thought it would only take a small push to bring it down.”
A Failed Gamble Against Iran
That gamble failed.
Despite the heavy losses suffered by Iran, from the assassination of senior leaders and the destruction of critical infrastructure to the deaths of thousands of civilians, the Iranian regime, which remains deeply hostile to Israel, emerged from the war with the confidence of a victor, feeling that the battle had strengthened its position.
But Netanyahu’s greatest burden, and perhaps his real predicament, may lie in the widening chill between him and Trump.
In recent weeks, Trump was reported to have described the Israeli prime minister as a “damn madman”. He also told the Financial Times: “I am the one who decides first and last. He has no say.”
At the same time, the American president’s popularity among Israelis, particularly among Netanyahu’s right-wing base, has fallen to record lows. A poll conducted by Israel’s Channel 12 last Thursday showed that only 13 per cent of Israelis trust Trump, once overwhelmingly popular, to protect their country’s interests.
Netanyahu’s Media Allies Turn on Trump
The resentment has extended to media figures close to Netanyahu.
They have described Trump, who once boasted that he was “the most pro-Israel American president in history”, as a “failure”. They have also directed harsh criticism and insults at Vance and envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.
Yinon Magal, a presenter on the far-right Channel 14 and a figure close to the prime minister, wrote on X last week that Trump had bowed to pressure from the “degenerate” Vance, accusing Witkoff and Kushner of having “sold out their brothers in Israel”.
Vance responded on Thursday with a sharp attack on far-right ministers in the Israeli government over their criticism of the agreement.
“If I were a member of the Israeli government, I would avoid attacking the only strong ally I have left in this world,” he said.
Nadav Shtrauchler, a political strategist who previously worked with the Israeli prime minister, said: “This agreement with Iran is not a minor blow to Netanyahu. If elections were held tomorrow, he would face a very serious dilemma.”
Electoral Pressure on Netanyahu
Netanyahu’s Likud party and its allies in the right-wing bloc are currently trailing the opposition in opinion polls, with no clear path to securing a new parliamentary majority.
However, Shtrauchler noted that with elections scheduled no later than next October, the veteran prime minister still has time to repair the rift and contain the damage.
Still, he stressed that Netanyahu “cannot close the chapter on this situation in its current form”, whether on the Iranian or Lebanese front, given the vast gap between the current reality and the grand promises he made at the start of his campaign against Iran.
“The Israeli public did not expect things to end this way at all,” Shtrauchler added.
According to the Channel 12 poll, only 11 per cent of Israelis believe their country emerged victorious from the war.
Meanwhile, Trump shared an article on Truth Social on Saturday under the telling headline: “Trump holds the cards in Netanyahu’s shaky re-election prospects.”
Unrealistic Expectations and Military Overreach
Shira Efron, an Israel-based fellow at the RAND Corporation, said the latest Iran war repeated the pattern of Israel’s other post-7 October campaigns, which were filled with “unrealistic expectations” and an exclusive focus on military solutions for every crisis.
“The Israeli premise was based on the idea that what force cannot solve, more force will solve,” she said. “As a result, diplomatic tools disappeared entirely from every front, and this is where the excessive ambition and reckless rush lay.”
Netanyahu, however, continues to reject any suggestion of failure.
In a rare press conference held on 15 June, he claimed there was a “systematic campaign to minimise the achievements of the war”. He then listed what he described as clear successes in Iran, including the destruction of missile systems, strikes on “countless” defence industrial targets, and economic damage to Tehran estimated in the hundreds of billions of dollars.
Netanyahu also argued that the war had protected Israel from “nuclear annihilation” and “mass death”, repeating his claim that Iran was racing to obtain a nuclear weapon. This claim is not supported by Israeli or Western intelligence assessments.
Achievements That Preceded the War
The striking irony is that most of the “successes” Netanyahu highlighted, including the return of Israeli hostages from Gaza, the degradation of Hezbollah’s massive missile arsenal, the elimination of its senior leadership, and even strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, were achievements from before the latest war.
Meanwhile, Hamas still controls around 40 per cent of the Gaza Strip, while Israel’s military conduct in Gaza has pushed the country into an unprecedented level of international isolation.
During the same press conference, Netanyahu barely mentioned Trump, playing down the deep disagreements between them and placing them in the category of disputes that “happen in the best families”.
Shtrauchler commented: “There are certainly tangible achievements he can rely on. But in politics, you are either a winner or standing in the line of those making excuses. Netanyahu, a month ago, would never have wanted to be in this position. He would have preferred to walk hand in hand with Trump towards the horizon of victory.”
Hopes for Another Turn
Despite this, Netanyahu’s allies have not yet abandoned hope.
They suggest that achieving a “decisive victory” only requires a little more time and perhaps another round of attacks.
Netanyahu and his camp also continue to hope that talks between the unpredictable Trump and the hardline Iranian regime will collapse before a final agreement is reached.
Miki Zohar, a senior Likud minister close to the prime minister, said in a radio interview last week: “Trump and Netanyahu have surprises in store that will astonish everyone in the coming days, even before the October elections. Believe me, anyone promoting the idea that the prime minister has gained nothing with Trump will soon regret it deeply.”
Analysts Remain Far Less Optimistic
Analysts in Israel and the United States are far less optimistic.
Iran has made it clear that it is willing to obstruct the broader negotiation track with Washington depending on developments in Lebanon. This narrows Netanyahu’s room for manoeuvre and risks placing him on a collision course with his only and most important ally.
Shapiro argued that Trump’s flexibility in cutting his losses and rushing towards a deal with Tehran is a clear sign of his desire to “turn inward and reduce American involvement in the Middle East quagmire”.
He concluded that future American presidents will likely avoid the danger of becoming entangled in similar military adventures, at a time when Arab Gulf states, which bore much of the burden of Iran’s retaliatory attacks, are seeking to cool tensions with Tehran.
Iran, meanwhile, has emerged with renewed influence and financial gains.
“It was a grave strategic mistake,” Shapiro said. “It carries one fundamental lesson: in the post-7 October world, there is no longer such a thing as ‘mission accomplished’.”
