The Wall Street Journal has questioned why China has limited its response to condemning the joint American and Israeli military attack on Iran without taking practical steps to support Tehran, even though the war carries significant risks for Beijing. Among the most pressing concerns is the possibility that the conflict could disrupt a substantial portion of China’s oil imports that pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that the United States and Israel attacking Iran during ongoing negotiations was “unacceptable.” He also said that “assassinating the leader of a sovereign state and inciting regime change is completely unacceptable,” referring to the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war.
The newspaper commented that China appears to have little to offer Iran beyond statements of condemnation. Analysts cited by the report suggested that Beijing is likely seeking to avoid becoming entangled in a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and is prepared to work with whichever authority governs Iran once the fighting ends.
China’s Strategic Caution
The Wall Street Journal noted that Beijing adopted a similar approach toward its close partner Venezuela when US forces arrested President Nicolás Maduro earlier this year. This stance may also indicate how China could react if Washington were to take action against Cuba, which maintains what has been described as a strong friendship with Beijing.
The newspaper suggested that US efforts to undermine China’s relations with its partners could weaken Beijing’s attempts to build alliances among states with similar orientations and to promote ambitious international initiatives aimed at challenging the Western-led global order.
Potential Strategic Benefits
Despite the risks, the newspaper argued that the war against Iran may carry certain advantages from the perspective of Chinese decision makers. The conflict could strain US military capabilities, particularly weapons systems that might otherwise be used in a potential confrontation with China over Taiwan.
The war may also allow China to observe the latest American military equipment and tactics. At the same time, the situation offers Beijing an opportunity to portray the United States as responsible for pushing the world toward what it described as a “law of the jungle.”
China’s Gulf Interests
The report also suggested that China’s cautious stance is influenced by its economic interests in the Gulf region. Chinese investments in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates significantly exceed its investments in Iran. Any move by Beijing to assist Iran in attacking its neighbours could therefore damage China’s relations with these strategically important states.
The newspaper nevertheless highlighted the depth of ties between Tehran and Beijing. In 2021, the two countries signed an economic cooperation agreement under which China committed to investing 400 billion dollars in Iran over a period of 25 years. However, implementation of the agreement has progressed slowly due to US sanctions imposed on Iran.
To maintain oil trade, the two countries have used complex methods to conceal Iranian oil exports to China, including transferring oil from one vessel to another in order to obscure its origin. China purchases approximately 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports, although this accounts for only about 12 percent of China’s total oil imports.
Safeguarding Energy Supplies
China has taken several steps to shield itself from any sudden disruption in energy imports. These measures include building a strategic national oil reserve and encouraging the use of electric vehicles and other technologies aimed at reducing reliance on oil consumption.
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