A prospective Egyptian Saudi Turkish alliance represents a significant turning point in the region’s history, though experts say it requires time to overcome the substantial challenges it faces.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a summit with his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Cairo, following a visit he made to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
After the Egyptian Turkish summit, El Sisi and Erdogan spoke of a convergence of views on regional issues, particularly developments in Palestine. They also affirmed their intention to expand cooperation between the two countries across multiple fields, including military and security cooperation.
This convergence in perspectives between Egypt and Türkiye, alongside Saudi Arabia, paves the way for an alliance that could move beyond economic ties towards comprehensive cooperation, ultimately consolidating a strategic partnership among the three states, according to Ambassador Ali Al Ashmawy, former Assistant Foreign Minister of Egypt.
Al Ashmawy said that limiting the Turkish president’s regional tour to Riyadh and Cairo, combined with the scope of cooperation outlined in the final statements, could lay the foundations for what he described as an Arab Islamic NATO. He noted that this would be particularly significant if Pakistan, with its nuclear capability, and Indonesia, with its large population, were to join.
According to Al Ashmawy, the human, economic, military, and technological weight of these states was what pushed US President Donald Trump to retreat from plans to displace the population of the Gaza Strip.
However, he warned that such an alliance would not emerge easily in the face of Israeli and American challenges. At the same time, he noted that Türkiye, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia maintain strong relations with the United States and are adept at dealing with the Trump administration, clearly defining red lines without provocation.
If political will is genuine and intentions are sincere, Al Ashmawy said, this alliance would mark a highly significant moment in the region’s history and could serve as a foundation to confront what he described as projects aimed at domination and fragmentation of the region.
A new vision and major challenges
Political researcher Ali Bakir did not differ significantly from this assessment. He argued that Egyptian Turkish relations have reached an unprecedented level politically and economically, opening the door to broader cooperation across various sectors.
Türkiye, Bakir explained, believes that the capabilities of key regional states remain underutilised both economically and politically. As a result, Ankara is pursuing a vision focused on expanding investment in these capacities.
By investing in the resources of major regional states, Türkiye is also seeking to confront Israeli domination projects, particularly as Tel Aviv has reached what Bakir described as the largest military capabilities in its history.
Confronting such extensive military power, he said, requires a substantial effort from influential regional states. He added that the hoped for alliance needs time, as it does not operate in a vacuum.
Bakir argued that Israel, in particular, will not allow such an alliance to take shape, especially if Pakistan and Indonesia become part of it. This, he said, has prompted pro Israeli lobbies in the United States to work early on to undermine the project.
He also stressed that building a strategic alliance of this scale should not be rushed, warning that a hastily formed alliance could collapse just as quickly. According to Bakir, what governments are doing still falls short of popular aspirations, but genuine risks have compelled them to take necessary steps.
Trust, he added, has now returned among the three states after years of absence. This makes it possible to establish an alliance that aligns with the priorities of its members, noting that these priorities differ from one country to another based on how each perceives risks.
At this stage, Bakir concluded, the priority lies in moving decisively to realise this vision by harnessing the resources and energies of major states, strengthening cooperation among them, and working to overcome the obstacles that will inevitably confront this path.
