Foreign Policy published a detailed report on the anticipated security agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia, describing it as the largest strategic gamble in the Middle East. The report argues that the deal serves American corporate interests more than the American public and enables the Saudi government to escape international accountability.
According to the analysis, translated by Arabi21, the return of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the global stage after years of isolation marks one of the most significant political shifts of the past decade. He arrives in Washington carrying promises of Saudi investments worth up to 600 billion dollars in American companies, in exchange for American security guarantees.
Although the deal appears profitable for corporations, the report warns that it carries major risks for the American people, who will ultimately bear its cost.
International Isolation and the Khashoggi Files
The report notes that Mohammed bin Salman’s isolation began after the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents in 2018. The incident triggered the withdrawal of top executives from investment conferences in Riyadh, the cancellation of official visits and agreements, and the Trump administration’s sanctions on 17 individuals involved.
Saudi Arabia’s reputation deteriorated to the point that US President Joe Biden pledged during his election campaign to halt arms sales to Riyadh. In February 2021, the Biden administration released an assessment confirming that the Crown Prince ordered Khashoggi’s killing, yet refrained from imposing personal sanctions, limiting punitive measures to banning 76 of his associates.
Foreign Policy explains that two years later, the Biden administration resumed normal engagement with Saudi Arabia out of fear of losing the kingdom as the largest importer of US weapons and as a key pillar of American influence in the Gulf. Biden visited Riyadh in July 2022, requesting an increase in oil production and pledging to ease the weapons embargo so it would apply only to offensive systems.
The magazine states that the Crown Prince’s full restoration came with Donald Trump’s return to power, as Trump declared that the US relationship with Riyadh would be strictly transactional: American military protection in exchange for Saudi financial commitments.
Social Reforms vs Authoritarian Rule
Foreign Policy acknowledges the social reforms introduced in Saudi Arabia, including easing restrictions on women, allowing mixed-gender entertainment events, and labour reforms for foreign workers. However, the magazine emphasises that the nature of governance has not changed. The system remains authoritarian under the rule of a single man, with no elections or political participation. Any protest or criticism is treated as terrorism, and in the absence of a codified criminal law, judicial rulings depend on a judge’s personal interpretation.
The report cites that Saudi Arabia recorded 322 executions in 2025, most of them foreign nationals.
Saudi Arabia has invested hundreds of billions of dollars across various US sectors, from sports, entertainment, and technology to oil, water, and agriculture, in order to secure what the magazine calls the “golden guarantee”: an American commitment to defend the kingdom. This includes potential F-35 fighter jet sales. However, a formal defence treaty remains unlikely due to Israeli objections. Instead, the expected outcome resembles the model used with Qatar, including the promise to deploy American forces to defend Riyadh in case of an attack.
Military and Diplomatic Consequences
According to the report, the primary beneficiaries of the agreement are American corporations, while the American public bears the military and diplomatic burden. This includes the possibility that US soldiers may be asked to risk their lives to protect the Saudi royal family, despite the absence of a strategic justification for expanding America’s security obligations in the Middle East.
Foreign Policy argues that while Mohammed bin Salman has shown political maturity, the Saudi system still lacks genuine accountability. This means the American security commitment is tied to a single, unaccountable leader whose record includes rash and severe decisions.
Ultimately, the magazine concludes that the agreement does not create stability. Instead, it risks dragging the United States into future conflicts and strengthens the Saudi leadership’s belief that it can act without facing consequences.
