The period following the “cessation of hostilities between Lebanon and Israel” in November 2024 failed to provide the Lebanese arena with any measure of stability. Israeli violations of the agreement have continued under the pretext of pursuing Hezbollah members and preventing the rebuilding of its strength.
These Israeli breaches of the ceasefire have not been limited to southern Lebanon. They have also extended to the eastern regions and the southern suburbs of Beirut, areas considered primary Hezbollah strongholds. The escalation reached a peak on Tuesday with the shelling of the Ain al Hilweh refugee camp.
According to Lebanese army data from last September, the Israeli army has committed nearly 4,500 violations since the agreement came into effect.
Hezbollah’s Weapons
Despite demands for it to surrender its weapons, Hezbollah has maintained its resistance narrative and has worked on extensive restoration of its military and organisational resources, according to several press reports.
In its July statement titled “An Open Letter to the Three Presidents and the Lebanese People,” the party affirmed the “legitimate right to resist occupation and aggression.”
It stressed its rejection of any proposal aimed at disarming the resistance, stating that discussing this matter in the current circumstance “serves the Israeli enemy and its regional projects.”
In late October, the Wall Street Journal published a report stating that “Hezbollah has begun rebuilding its military arsenal and reorganising its ranks.”
According to the report, intelligence assessments indicate that Hezbollah is storing missiles, anti tank systems, and heavy artillery, with some shipments allegedly arriving through Syrian smuggling routes and Lebanese seaports.
The newspaper added that the party has also resumed producing weapons locally, indicating major rearmament efforts less than a year after the ceasefire.
France’s Le Figaro reported in October that Hezbollah is currently operating almost entirely underground, noting that the party is secretly rebuilding both its leadership structure and military force.
The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) previously announced the discovery of a vast network of fortified tunnels belonging to Hezbollah around several towns in southern Lebanon. These tunnels contain weapons, rockets, shelters, artillery units, and rocket launchers, in addition to hundreds of missiles, anti tank mines, and other explosive devices.
Israeli Convictions
On the Israeli side, the prevailing conviction is that Hezbollah continues to focus on rebuilding its military capabilities. A report by Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies said that “since the ceasefire, the party has clearly reorganised itself, working to renew its financial reserves, explore new methods of smuggling weapons into Lebanon, recruit personnel, and restructure its institutions.”
According to the Wall Street Journal, Israeli military sources said Hezbollah has smuggled hundreds of short range rockets from Syria into Lebanon in recent months and is working to rebuild its leadership structure.
Regarding manpower and ammunition, the Jewish News Syndicate reported in an assessment of Hezbollah’s size and weapons that “Hezbollah’s force in Lebanon consists of 40,000 members, with between 15,000 and 20,000 rockets and shells at its disposal.” The site quoted US envoy Tom Barrack as saying that “this stockpile represents a preliminary base for the party’s military recovery, though still far below its previous capabilities.”
Despite ongoing Israeli strikes aimed at disrupting rearmament, Israeli assessments, including statements by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, stress that “Hezbollah is suffering continuous blows but is also attempting to rearm and recover.”
Israeli estimates suggest that Hezbollah’s arsenal includes around 20,000 military units, and that the party has expanded its drone program and rebuilt storage and assembly facilities, indicating diversified recovery tools beyond conventional rockets.
A report by the Israeli outlet Ynet stated that Hezbollah is rapidly regaining its capabilities across three main axes: “rockets and shells, drones, and infrastructure.”
Israel believes Hezbollah possesses tens of thousands of rockets, along with several thousand remaining long range rockets, in addition to producing thousands of new airborne drones since the end of the war. The report added that members of the Radwan Forces have reorganised in the area between the Litani River and the border in major cities such as Nabatieh.
Maariv reported that the Israeli army has identified Hezbollah’s steps to rehabilitate itself, noting that the party is rebuilding its strength through intensive recruitment, weapon stockpiling, and establishing a new defensive line north of the Litani River. According to the report, this includes not just a fighting force but an organised army, with missile and artillery systems.
Israel informed US agencies that Hezbollah has successfully smuggled hundreds of rockets from Syria in recent weeks, reactivated damaged launch platforms, and recruited thousands of new fighters.
According to Israeli reports, Hezbollah is synchronising between mass production of simple weapons such as short range rockets and light arms, and the production of advanced, precise weapons including anti tank missiles and sophisticated electronic systems.
A Secret Structure
According to Israeli assessments, parallel to above ground recovery efforts, Hezbollah has been reinforcing its secret infrastructure, which the party considers a safety valve guaranteeing its continued resilience and providing alternative routes for launching, storage, and mobility.
A report by the Israeli Alma Research and Education Center described this infrastructure by saying that “Hezbollah is accelerating its rehabilitation, especially in the area north of the Litani River, the new geographic centre of gravity for Unit Badr Sector, which has become pivotal for Hezbollah’s deployment on the southern front in terms of firing operations, defence, and weapons storage.”
The report added that “Hezbollah’s rehabilitation efforts focus on survivability and transitioning to more covert operations, maintaining, repairing, and producing weapons, smuggling, organisational activities, updating military operational plans, and conducting drills and exercises.”
The centre estimates that the party “currently retains about one third of the firepower it possessed before the war.”
In another analysis published by Israel Alma, Tal Bari explained that “regarding Hezbollah’s tunnels in Lebanon, we assess that there remains a large infrastructure of both tactical and strategic tunnels that were not damaged.”
He added that “the situation is unclear” concerning the tunnels equipped with mines, noting that the party did not use them during the war, leaving the real map of the network uncertain.
Israeli reports confirm that the Bekaa Valley remains Hezbollah’s strategic depth on both operational and logistical levels. The area includes infrastructure for training, weapons production, and storage, with sites containing strategic missile and ammunition arrays, some located underground in significant facilities that were not damaged.
Deterrence Messages
Amid this political escalation, Israel has resumed linking its security position to what it describes as Lebanon’s failure to control Hezbollah. It has warned of intensified strikes if the party’s disarmament fails, reigniting diplomatic tension and increasing fears of a new confrontation should political pathways falter.
The occupation announced a new operational doctrine based on the principle of preemptive strike, summarised in the phrase “we must not wait for the enemy’s attack; we must strike first,” reinforcing continued escalation and placing the region before open-ended possibilities.
In this context, Israeli Air Force chief Major General Tomer Bar emphasised tightening pressure on Hezbollah’s drone unit to prevent its return to full operation, reflecting rising Israeli concern over the party’s drone program.
As Israeli fear over Hezbollah’s reconstruction efforts grows, the military establishment in Tel Aviv has begun sending direct deterrence messages through intensified operational activity.
A UNIFIL report highlighted the scale of Israeli violations of the agreement, documenting more than “2,200 military attacks and over 6,200 airspace violations” since November 2024. This demonstrates that Tel Aviv relies on a tactic of attrition and continuous pressure to undermine any attempt to rebuild missile or combat capabilities.
A report by Le Monde confirmed that the series of Israeli violations has killed at least “111 civilians” in Lebanon since late November 2024, making the ceasefire resemble a fragile truce subjected to daily breaches.
Diplomatic Pressure
International pressure on the Lebanese government has risen as instability persists along the border and concerns mount over Hezbollah’s rebuilding of its military capabilities.
The United States cancelled scheduled meetings for Lebanese Army Commander General Rodolphe Haikal in Washington. A US official told Al Jazeera that the Department of War cancelled all his meetings that were to take place at the Pentagon.
Lebanese media reported that the cancellation came due to the US administration’s “dissatisfaction” with what it considers the Lebanese army’s “failure” to enforce exclusive state control over weapons.
Similarly, Euronews reported that Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam “is facing increasing pressure from the United States to ensure that the Iran aligned armed group surrenders its weapons.”
These pressures intersect with remarks by US envoy Tom Barrack during the “Manama Dialogue 2025,” where he said that Washington now views Lebanon as a “failed state.” However, he added that Lebanese leaders are still capable of action, urging them to accelerate efforts to confine weapons to the state, saying, “Lebanese leadership must move faster to limit Hezbollah’s weapons.”
