As the war between Israel and the Axis of Resistance led by Iran enters its twenty-third month, the old pillars of Middle Eastern politics and security have collapsed. Agreements once seen as immovable—such as the Sykes–Picot Agreement of 1916, the Taif Agreement of 1989, and the 1974 disengagement accord between Syria and Israel—have all lost their force.
At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in coordination with Washington, is pushing to reshape the order of the Arab Levant.
After suffering one of the most severe intelligence and military defeats in Israel’s history during the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation on October 7, 2023, Netanyahu declared a “war of existence” against Iran and its allies, vowing to “change the face of the Middle East,” as he told the UN General Assembly.
Israel’s central goal in this campaign is to restructure the regional order by weakening—or dismantling—the Axis of Resistance, while linking the Eastern Mediterranean with the southern Gulf through expanded Abraham Accords and the IMEC corridor project.
Yet after the “modern war” of June, fought directly between Tehran and Tel Aviv, Iran abandoned its long-standing policy of avoiding all-out confrontation. It has since launched sweeping changes in political and security leadership to prepare for the next wave of Israeli threats.
Two moves signal this shift clearly: the appointment of Ali Larijani as Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, and the creation of a new Supreme Defense Council. Both reflect Tehran’s determination to restore deterrence against foreign threats.
Larijani’s visits to Iraq and Lebanon must be understood in this context: a field policy aimed at rebuilding and reinforcing the Axis of Resistance, as confirmed by statements from senior Iranian officials, resistance leaders, and ongoing developments on the ground.
Reviving the “Ring of Fire” Around Israel
The U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Israel’s nuclear arsenal, and the strategic bond between Washington and Tel Aviv pushed Iran to seek balance through a strategy of empowering “anti-hegemony forces” — the Axis of Resistance — via asymmetric warfare.
In 2004, Jordan’s King Abdullah II warned of a “Shia Crescent.” Israeli officials and think tanks went further, branding Iran’s strategy a “Ring of Fire” around Israel.
The concept was simple: keep war away from Iran’s borders by draining U.S. forces on eastern and western fronts, while encircling Israel with a siege of resistance groups. Through protracted “wars of attrition” in the grey zone, the Israeli military machine would be blocked from advancing eastward into the Levant and Iran.
The 2006 Lebanon War was a turning point. For the first time, Hizbullah halted Israeli advances and prevented the occupation of Beirut. The defeat shattered Israel’s aura of invincibility and proved Iran and its allies could impose a balance of power that restrained Israel from redrawing borders at will.
However, the “Arab Spring” unleashed new complications. Arab regimes grew anxious about Iran’s role, and even Turkey’s influence, leading to the Abraham Accords of the 2020s, which cemented regional alignments against Tehran.
Resetting Resistance Relations with Local States
The “Ring of Fire” reached its peak during the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation and the activation of the Unity of Fronts strategy:
- First ring: Gaza and the West Bank
- Second ring: Lebanon and Yemen
- Third ring: Iran and Iraq
From October 2023 to September 2024, the objective was to pressure Israel into a ceasefire in Gaza. But the eruption of the Third Lebanon War changed the equation.
Netanyahu escalated into a high-risk gamble: mass assassinations and heavy airstrikes dealt major blows to Hizbullah’s leadership. Meanwhile, the fall of the Assad regime and restrictions on Iran-Hizbullah supply lines reshaped the northern front. Hizbullah was forced into a defensive stance, facing demands for disarmament under UN Resolution 1701.
It was against this backdrop that Larijani’s visits to Baghdad and Beirut drew public attention. Meeting Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, he declared:
“I am responsible for national security in Iran, and I assure you: Iran has no intention of interfering in your domestic affairs, especially Lebanon. Your state must engage all communities to reach an agreement.
The one interfering is the outsider who comes from thousands of kilometres away with ready-made plans. Do not confuse friend with enemy. Resistance is a national asset for you and for all Islamic nations.”
This marked a new phase: Iran presenting itself not as a meddler but as a facilitator, pushing to normalise resistance factions as part of national defense structures.
According to this vision, Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces would become a formal pillar of the Iraqi state, while Hizbullah would operate as a disciplined military-security wing within Lebanon’s state framework—ready to face external aggression.
The goal is not disarmament but controlled integration: making resistance factions national vanguards that answer to the state while remaining capable of confronting Israel. This approach mirrors the Beijing Agreement of March 2023 between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which created a new atmosphere in the region.
Will the Next War Engulf the Entire Region?
Iran’s allies played only limited roles in the recent 12-day conflict, restricting Tehran’s ability to unleash its full power and avoid U.S. entanglement in a broader regional war.
But lessons from the June war pushed Iran to double down on Hizbullah, equipping it as a frontline force against Israel’s “existential threat.” Tehran has also armed Ansar Allah in Yemen with advanced missiles, tilting the balance once again.
Meanwhile, the European troika’s activation of the Snapback Mechanism to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran has raised the likelihood of another confrontation.
Should Netanyahu launch a new military adventure, the flames could spread into a nightmare of all-out regional war. Israel and its allies would only be able to contain Iran if they struck Hizbullah, Yemen’s Ansar Allah, and Iraq’s resistance factions hard—before a direct Iran–Israel war begins.
But as Iran and its allies rebuild and restore capabilities, time now works in their favour. Israel, sooner or later, must decide whether to risk the second round of this war—and face the consequences.
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