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The Scenario of Israel’s Collapse

September 6, 2025
in Sunna Files Blog
Reading Time: 11 mins read
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On 1 September 2025, the International Association of Genocide Scholars issued a resolution confirming that Israel’s actions in Gaza meet the legal criteria for genocide.

Out of 500 members, 86% endorsed the resolution, which declared that “Israel’s policies and actions in Gaza satisfy the legal definition of genocide as outlined in Article II of the 1948 UN Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.”

The irony is stark: the same convention, drafted in the shadow of the Holocaust, has now been invoked against the state created in its wake.


Brutality and the Collapse of the “Victim” Narrative

Since its inception, Israel has relied on the narrative of “victimhood.” The claim was simple: the Jews, persecuted in Europe and survivors of the Holocaust, deserved political and moral compensation through a state of their own — not in Europe, which oppressed them, but in Palestine, portrayed as “a land without a people” and the “Promised Land.”

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For decades, the Zionist propaganda machine marketed Israel as a beacon of Western civilisation, a democracy safeguarding human rights in a supposedly “terrorist” region. This project built an image so powerful that it masked the reality of Israel as a colonial settler state.

But that carefully constructed facade collapsed with breathtaking speed — because it was built on lies. Once the world saw Israel’s savage reality, it rejected the occupation and condemned the genocide carried out by the descendants of those who once suffered genocide.

The mask has fallen. Israel stands exposed as a rogue entity that has killed nearly 63,000 Palestinians, including more than 18,000 children, wounded 160,000, left 10,000 missing, and systematically destroyed Gaza’s cities, hospitals, schools, universities, mosques, and churches — while starving civilians by cutting off food, water, and medicine.

This truth strips Israel of the moral legitimacy it has always claimed. And without moral legitimacy, no political project can endure. Israel is an alien colonial implant — disconnected from the region’s history, culture, and language — and ultimately destined to wither.

Global protests, particularly in the West, against Israel’s brutality and calls for accountability reflect a profound shift: Israel is losing the Western public opinion that once sheltered it. And while Western governments remain hesitant, their electorates are growing restless, demanding sanctions and justice — a pressure that will only intensify in coming elections.


A War Losing Its Legitimacy

As the Gaza war drags into its second year, even after inflicting heavy but inconclusive blows against Hamas and Hizbullah, Israel faces rising internal anxiety.

The exhausted Israeli public increasingly expects its government to halt the war, negotiate the release of prisoners, and repair the nation’s battered image abroad. Israel’s reputation has suffered in the United States, Europe, and Australia.

Domestic concerns are mounting: 900 soldiers and officers killed, a strained economy, and the disruption of civilian life for hundreds of thousands of reservists. More damaging still is Israel’s growing international isolation.

A Harvard–Harris poll in late August revealed a seismic shift: 60% of young Americans (ages 18–24) now support Hamas over Israel. This reversal has shaken Israeli elites, already alarmed by the country’s plummeting moral standing.

Discontent has seeped into the military itself. According to a Walla News poll (26 August), 73% of Israelis want the war to stop; 75% of soldiers and officers support ending it; and 40% of the army has lost the motivation to fight.

This signals that Israel’s war has lost both domestic and international legitimacy. The UN Security Council vote in late August — 14 countries in favour of ending Israel’s war and only the United States opposing — underscored Israel’s diplomatic isolation.


From Excess Power to Imminent Collapse

Israel could still exit through an agreement with Hamas: release the captives, end the war, and salvage what remains of its foreign relations. But Netanyahu and the extremist Zionist right refuse. Instead, they pursue an ideological-theological mission of expanding “Greater Israel,” as Netanyahu declared his struggle a “historic spiritual duty.”

This path points not only to the attempted expulsion of Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza but also to looming confrontations with neighbouring states:

  • Lebanon: Israel and Washington press for Hizbullah’s disarmament, paving the way for strikes on Iran.
  • Syria: Already under Israeli attacks in the south, it is a likely future target. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich openly declared that “Jerusalem’s borders end in Damascus.”
  • Jordan: Israeli Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi proclaimed on 22 August 2025: “There are two banks of the Jordan River — both belong to us.” Occupation of Jordan’s eastern highlands is no longer unthinkable.

Netanyahu and the Zionist far-right see a historic chance to crush all resistance forces and expand geographically, driven by messianic dreams of Greater Israel. They believe massacres of Arabs and Muslims will hasten the coming of their so-called “messiah.”

They are emboldened by unwavering U.S. support. President Trump and his administration cloak brute force as “peace,” while prioritising economic and strategic dominance. Washington shows no objection to Israel’s expansionist policies, echoing the religious rhetoric of U.S. politicians like House Speaker Mike Johnson, who proclaimed the West Bank “biblically Jewish land” that must remain part of Israel.

Behind the religious zealotry lies cold geopolitics: America seeks to empower Israel to dominate the Middle East so Washington can focus on countering China and Russia.

But this reckless strategy carries the seeds of Israel’s collapse. A state of only seven million people, battered economically, militarily, and socially after two years of war in Gaza, cannot impose hegemony across an entire region. Should Israel push further into Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, or even Egypt, it will encounter resistance far fiercer than in Gaza.


The Inevitable Fall

Israel’s extremist, theology-driven project — rooted in myth and intoxicated with power — imagines divine conquest over the region. But in the decisive hour, Israel will find itself alone on the battlefield, abandoned by history and betrayed by its illusions.

No amount of U.S. military cover can save it. Washington may supply aircraft carriers and weapons, but it cannot shield Israel from the rejection of the peoples of this region — nor from the consequences of its own arrogance.

Israel’s downfall, accelerated by genocide in Gaza, will be written not only in Palestinian blood but also in the collapse of its own self-deception.

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