Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has succeeded in disrupting diplomatic momentum between Washington and Tehran over Iran’s nuclear program, shifting the focus to a military campaign against Iran, openly backed by the United States.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump could have pursued a peaceful agreement with Iran — one that allowed for a civilian nuclear program, in line with international norms, in exchange for economic concessions and trillion-dollar investment opportunities for U.S. corporations. This could have opened the door for U.S.–Iran cooperation.
But the Zionist doctrine — entrenched in Israel’s ideology — refuses to allow any Arab or Muslim nation to develop even a peaceful nuclear program, fearing that it may evolve into a nuclear deterrent, as happened with Pakistan. Such a balance would threaten Israel’s monopoly on regional military supremacy, which it views as essential to its survival on occupied Palestinian land.
Israel is acutely aware of its unnatural imposition on the region, and despite its normalisation deals with some Arab regimes, it still sees military superiority as its only guarantee of existence. This explains its past actions, like the bombing of Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981, and its current obsession with dismantling Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
The War Has Begun: What’s the Endgame?
Israel launched a preemptive strike on Iran on June 13, 2025, capitalising on Trump’s deceptive diplomacy. Tehran was engaged in quiet back-channel talks with Washington, preparing for a new round of negotiations in Oman — talks scheduled for just two days after the Israeli strike.
Within days, Netanyahu openly declared the goals of the war:
- Destroying Iran’s nuclear program
- Dismantling Iran’s missile arsenal
- Overthrowing the regime, as part of a broader redrawing of the Middle East map
To match these ambitions, Israel escalated its strikes: targeting missile sites, nuclear infrastructure, gas fields (like South Pars), civilian centres, and even Iran’s state TV headquarters.
Meanwhile, Trump doubled down, stating on June 17 that the U.S. demands not just a ceasefire but “complete surrender” from Iran — “no negotiations, no conditions.”
This was accompanied by an unprecedented U.S. military buildup in the region: aircraft carriers, refuelling jets, B-2 and B-52 bombers equipped with bunker-busting bombs — likely aimed at the Fordow nuclear facility, buried under 800 meters of mountain rock, beyond Israel’s reach without American firepower.
Despite its arrogance, Israel cannot reshape the Middle East without direct U.S. military intervention, especially when it comes to regime change in Iran. But even Washington’s ability to achieve that goal is far from guaranteed.
Iran: Not Iraq, Not Afghanistan
Iran is no easy target. With a landmass of 1.7 million km², a population of over 90 million, and substantial military and economic capabilities, Iran is larger and more complex than Iraq or Afghanistan — two countries where U.S. interventions ultimately failed.
Three Scenarios for the War on Iran
1. Iran Returns to Negotiations with U.S. Terms
In this scenario, Tehran concedes to U.S. demands in order to avoid devastating airstrikes, economic collapse, and further isolation. Iran would retreat from its regional ambitions, abandoning its enrichment program and adopting a defensive posture, paving the way for a U.S.-Israeli-engineered Middle East.
2. Iran Is Defeated Militarily
If the U.S. enters the war directly, and regional and global powers (China, Russia) remain neutral, Iran could face defeat. Isolated, sanctioned, and under intense bombardment, Tehran might be forced to surrender, causing internal regime collapse and a redrawing of the region’s political landscape.
3. A Full-Scale Regional War
This is the most explosive scenario. U.S. military intervention could provoke the entry of multiple regional actors, transforming the Iran-Israel war into a broader Middle Eastern war, particularly if Iran stands firm and views the conflict as existential.
Actors Likely to Join the Regional War:
- Hezbollah, opened the northern front with Israel. A defeat for Iran would be existential for the Lebanese resistance. If Hezbollah overcomes recent Israeli intelligence penetrations, it could inflict severe damage and prolong Israeli military exhaustion.
- Yemen’s Ansarullah (Houthis), who have already supported Gaza, may enter the war against Israel, disrupting shipping routes and targeting U.S. warships in Bab al-Mandeb.
- Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) have thousands of fighters and could join the fight from Iran’s vulnerable western flank. They’ve previously targeted Israel using drones.
- Russia and China might exploit the U.S. intervention to drain American power, bolster their global positioning, and increase leverage in Ukraine and Taiwan.
- Turkey and Pakistan, both bordering Iran, have no interest in seeing it collapse. Israel’s hostility toward both — including Netanyahu’s past threats to strike Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal — may push them toward indirect support for Iran or diplomatic resistance to Israeli expansion.
Toward a Catastrophic Regional Outcome
If Iran refuses to submit, and the U.S. joins the war directly, the region is likely heading toward a full-scale regional conflict. The fallout will be devastating:
- Security breakdowns in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Yemen, and the Gulf states
- Closure of Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz, threatening 30% of global oil and 25% of global gas exports
- Global economic shockwaves, with spiralling fuel prices and shipping delays
- Unprecedented humanitarian disasters, refugee flows, and political instability
The Existential Question: If Iran Falls — Who’s Next?
Israel was planted in the Arab world in 1948 as a Western outpost, a militarised outlier meant to dominate and divide. Its survival has always relied on Arab weakness.
Now, this same formula is being applied to the entire Muslim world — from Iran to Turkey to Pakistan. But if this war turns regional, the consequences will ripple across the Islamic world and beyond.
Even if Iran is militarily damaged, it will not disappear — it is a civilisation rooted in thousands of years of history. But the question remains:
What happens to Israel if it loses this war?
Can an artificial settler-colonial entity survive a defeat in the very war it provoked?
This work demands time, pressure, and sacrifice.
But we do it—for the Ummah, and for the truth.
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