Colonel Hatam Kareem Al-Falahi, a prominent military strategist, has stated that Iran’s latest missile strikes on Israel mark a critical shift in Tehran’s response strategy. He explained that the operation was carried out under the cover of darkness, evading Israeli intelligence and satellite surveillance, revealing a significant advancement in Iran’s operational capabilities—despite recent internal security breaches.
In his military analysis of the evolving confrontation between Iran and the Zionist entity, Al-Falahi emphasised that Tehran deliberately exploited nighttime conditions to reduce Israel’s satellite detection advantage, aiming to reassert its strategic deterrence following Israeli attacks on Iranian command and control infrastructure.
Iran had earlier declared it launched a wide-scale missile offensive, firing hundreds of missiles, including—for the first time—missiles launched from submarines. Key Israeli military and leadership centres were struck, including the Ministry of Defense in Tel Aviv. Channel 13 described the resulting destruction as unprecedented.
Israeli Defence Systems Overwhelmed
Al-Falahi pointed out that Israel’s failure to intercept the overwhelming number of missiles demonstrates a critical vulnerability in its defence systems. He described it as a “missile saturation” scenario, where systems like the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and U.S.-made THAAD and Arrow are simply not built to handle simultaneous multi-type attacks.
He explained that Iran used a mix of missiles with varied ranges, speeds, and altitudes, deliberately complicating Israel’s interception efforts. The missiles’ short flight time—mere minutes—put immense logistical pressure on Israel’s defences and left many targets unprotected.
Israeli media confirmed the launch of three successive missile waves, with multiple missiles striking central Tel Aviv. Dozens of Israeli civilians were injured, and widespread damage to buildings and vehicles was reported. The Ministry of Health placed hospitals on high alert.
“True Promise 3” and Iran’s Tactical Evolution
According to Al-Falahi, Operation “True Promise 3” demonstrates a noticeable evolution in Iranian military doctrine compared to previous responses. This time, Iran deployed hypersonic missiles—capable of descending from space at tremendous speed—with warheads exceeding 500 kilograms, drastically increasing their destructive capacity.
While some defensive interceptor missiles fell back into Israeli cities causing minor damage, the real devastation came from Iran’s ballistic missiles, which hit their targets with direct, calculated precision. This explains the total collapse of several buildings and destruction of entire floors in Tel Aviv.
The IRGC confirmed that the strike targeted dozens of critical sites in retaliation for the Israeli assassination of senior Iranian commanders and nuclear scientists. Tehran vowed to continue striking if Israeli aggression persisted.
Despite recent blows to Iran’s military leadership, Al-Falahi said the fact that Iran still delivered such a strike reflects its unshaken resolve to establish a new deterrence equation. He added that future Iranian responses may become even more accurate and focused once command structures fully stabilise following Israel’s earlier decapitation attempts.
A Regional Shift and Foreign Involvement
Interestingly, Israel was not alone in defending itself. According to Al-Falahi, U.S. and French military assets assisted Israel in intercepting some of the missiles—a sign of how seriously the Iranian operation challenged regional security dynamics.
American officials confirmed that U.S. forces participated in defence operations during the missile wave. Meanwhile, Israel hinted it may retaliate by targeting Iranian civilian infrastructure, including economic and energy sites. Tehran, in turn, warned that any such action will trigger a harsher response.
Shrinking Israeli Target Bank
Al-Falahi noted that Israel ordered its population to remain in shelters for extended periods—revealing its concern that more waves could follow. Prime Minister Netanyahu echoed this, claiming Israel had struck Iranian nuclear centres and senior commanders—but also admitted military operations were ongoing.
However, Al-Falahi warned that Israel’s “target bank” is shrinking. After striking nearly 300 sites, further Israeli escalation would likely focus on nuclear facilities in Arak, Fordow, and Isfahan. He added that Iran may preemptively relocate its nuclear infrastructure to avoid a future surprise attack.
Iran Preparing for Prolonged War
Al-Falahi stressed that Iran is clearly preparing for a long-term war of attrition, with expectations that upcoming operations may involve low-altitude drones, which are harder to detect and can bypass Israeli radar. This would allow Iran to strike strategic targets deep inside Israel, exploiting gaps in Israeli military coordination.
He warned that continued Iranian strikes could corner Israel, making it difficult to maintain the current pace of escalation. Internal pressure, rising casualties, and economic cost may eventually force Israel to accept international mediation, a possibility floated by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
As Netanyahu threatens continued responses, he has attempted to rally the Iranian public against their leadership. However, Al-Falahi dismissed this tactic as psychological warfare, predicting it will fail—especially after Israel’s inability to stop the Iranian missile onslaught.
If the U.S. Intervenes, the Conflict Will Widen
Finally, Al-Falahi cautioned that direct U.S. involvement in strikes on Iranian territory would likely escalate the conflict regionally. Tehran may then open new fronts, expanding the battlefield and drawing in additional actors—something that would not serve regional stability nor U.S. interests in the long run.
