Experts and political analysts agree: the Middle East is entering a dangerously volatile phase. Tensions between Israel and Iran are intensifying amid the collapse of nuclear negotiations and a wave of precautionary U.S. evacuations from key embassies in the region.
According to The Associated Press, U.S. officials confirmed that the State Department is preparing to evacuate all non-essential staff and their families from U.S. embassies in Baghdad, Bahrain, and Kuwait — a move that has amplified concerns of imminent conflict.
Israel’s Calculated Gamble
Dr. Mohannad Mustafa, a specialist in Israeli affairs, believes that Israel is preparing for a preemptive military strike on Iran should nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran fail. He states that Israel views this moment as a rare, historic opportunity that it cannot afford to miss.
What distinguishes the current situation, he explains, is the unified stance between Israel’s political and military institutions — both now aligned in favour of a direct strike.
“Israel has been waiting for this chance since 2009,” says Dr. Mustafa. “But today, the conditions are entirely different. Israel now believes it can successfully damage Iran’s nuclear program — especially after recent operations that weakened or neutralised what Israel calls Tehran’s ‘regional arms,’ most notably Hezbollah.”
He adds that for Israel, the strike is not merely tactical — it’s a long-anticipated strategic goal. And now, it sees the timing as perfect.
The U.S. Signals Point to Escalation
Military expert and strategist Fayez Al-Duwairi argues that the U.S. evacuation orders signal high-level intelligence pointing to a likely Israeli strike. Washington, he insists, would not issue such orders without near-certain information that a military action may be imminent.
Al Jazeera’s correspondent in Washington, Fadi Mansour, reports that U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, following Central Command’s assessment of the regional situation, announced that families of U.S. troops were being relocated from multiple locations under CENTCOM’s operational domain.
A senior U.S. defense official told Al Jazeera that although there is no direct Iranian threat to the U.S. at this moment, the tension likely revolves around a possible confrontation between Israel and Iran, which could quickly spiral into a regional war.
Iran’s Dual-Track Strategy
From Tehran, Al Jazeera’s Nour El-Din Al-Dagher reports that Iranian leadership still believes a diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue is possible. Tehran remains open to increasing transparency and allowing more rigorous IAEA inspections to build trust with Washington and the West.
But Tehran is also preparing for another scenario. Al-Dagher notes that Iran is working on two parallel tracks: one diplomatic — hoping to secure a deal with the U.S. — and the other military, ensuring readiness to retaliate should its nuclear facilities come under attack.
Political Analysis: Washington’s Balancing Act
Dr. Hassan Mneimneh, political analyst and senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, says the U.S. does not want another war that would destabilise the entire region. However, he admits that Washington does not want to see Iran gain nuclear capability either.
He believes the Biden administration is secretly content with Israel’s aggressive posture, viewing it as useful leverage against Iran at the negotiating table.
Mneimneh warns that Donald Trump’s recent remarks — particularly after his phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (currently facing an ICC arrest warrant) — make any Israeli attack without U.S. approval politically awkward for the former president.
Dr. Liqaa Makki, senior researcher at Al Jazeera Centre for Studies, agrees. He notes that the rising threats and counter-threats suggest a real chance of confrontation, especially as these developments are unfolding just days before the next expected round of U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations.
Makki believes the U.S. may be using the threat of an Israeli strike as a pressure tactic — a message to Iran:
“Accept the deal, or face war.”
If War Breaks Out, It Won’t Be a One-Night Strike
Should Israel strike, experts agree that the attack won’t be limited to a single raid. Dr. Makki predicts a sustained campaign lasting at least a week, targeting not only Iran’s nuclear facilities but also strategic military and economic infrastructure — aimed at crippling Tehran’s future nuclear funding capabilities.
Al Jazeera’s Sami Al-Kubaisi, reporting from Baghdad, adds that sources in Iraq confirmed the U.S. evacuations extend beyond Iraq, encompassing several embassies across the Middle East — a clear sign that Washington is bracing for a broader regional escalation.
Makki warns that the entire region will be pulled into the conflict, and that the situation could deteriorate within hours, not days. If no breakthrough is achieved in the upcoming negotiation session, the long-anticipated strike may unfold as early as next week — plunging the region into a dangerous phase that could redefine regional power dynamics for years to come.
