An Israeli expert has discussed Hamas’ plans to transform the Gaza Strip into a model similar to Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, as Tel Aviv remains preoccupied with the fate of the second phase of the prisoner exchange deal.
Mair Ben-Shabbat, head of the Israeli Misgav Institute for National Security and Strategy, stated in an article published by Israel Hayom that “the Arab world and Hamas are hastening discussions on formulas that will pave the way for the ‘day after’ scenario in Gaza—without renewing hostilities and without Trump’s plan.”
He continued, “The overwhelming number of statements from Hamas spokespeople regarding the movement’s willingness to step back from managing civilian affairs in Gaza and allowing other entities to take over is aimed at providing Egypt and Qatar with the necessary conditions to push forward an initiative that could replace the ideas being debated in Washington and Jerusalem.”
He pointed out that “the emergency Arab summit, expected to be held by Egypt on March 4 to address the ‘Palestinian issue,’ will serve as a platform for this initiative. Its supporters hope that placing it on the agenda will reduce political and public focus on Trump’s plan, which has been shaking the Arab street and threatening the regional order since its announcement.”
Ben-Shabbat noted that, in light of the efforts to market this initiative as a solution that meets all parties’ interests and aligns with Trump’s vision of regional normalization, it would be useful to carefully analyze the language used by Hamas’ spokespeople, as hidden pitfalls lie within their statements.
He explained that Hamas’ position on Gaza’s future revolves around two key principles:
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- The first principle asserts that managing Gaza is a purely Palestinian internal affair requiring “national consensus,” a phrase that effectively brings the Palestinian Authority into the equation while allowing Hamas to set conditions and demands.
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- The second principle affirms that armed resistance against Israeli occupation is the right of the entire Palestinian people across all Palestinian lands—not just Hamas. This means Hamas not only opposes disarmament in Gaza but also seeks legitimacy for building and using its military capabilities across all Palestinian territories. In other words, there will be no disarmament.
According to the Israeli expert, mediators are expected to respond by presenting greater commitments to preventing Hamas from acquiring more weapons. They will likely argue that this is a long-term, multi-dimensional process that requires patience and addresses the root causes of hostility. From their perspective, it is better to manage the situation in this manner rather than resorting to reckless ventures based on the false illusion of delivering a decisive blow.
Ben-Shabbat warned that if the civilian administration in Gaza shifts from Hamas’ hands while the movement remains the dominant power in the Strip, Gaza will effectively become a Hezbollah-style model. This transition would be facilitated through a so-called “administrative committee,” allowing Hamas to rebuild its military power in Gaza while maintaining control over developments in both the Strip and the West Bank.
He stressed that increased Arab and international involvement in implementing this model will only add to Israel’s burden. Therefore, Tel Aviv must make it clear that it will not compromise on its demand for Gaza’s disarmament along with Hamas’ downfall—not just its replacement. He added that the Israeli Defense Minister’s initiative to establish a voluntary migration program for Gaza residents is part of Israel’s response to this initiative, but emphasized that Israel will not accept such proposals, urging against any hasty moves in this direction.
