Washington Institute: These Are Israel’s Interests in Syria and How They Can Be Achieved

Retired Israeli General Assaf Orion sees the fall of the Assad regime as a development that brings significant opportunities for Israel, but also introduces considerable threats.

In a report published by the Washington Institute, Orion argues that the fall of Assad’s regime would deal a severe blow to Iran and the so-called “Resistance Axis.” He explains that such a scenario would sever a critical link in the strategic arc connecting Tehran, Baghdad, Damascus, and Beirut. This disruption could cut off the logistical supply lines to the Mediterranean coast, delivering a major setback to Hezbollah’s rearmament ambitions and separating Iran’s strategic depth from the battlefronts near Israel’s borders.

Orion also notes, “Meanwhile, Russia seeks to maintain its bases in Syria while reducing its military presence, potentially expanding Israel’s freedom of movement in the region.”

Emerging Threats Amid Opportunities

Despite the potential advantages, Orion highlights emerging threats in the post-Assad landscape. He warns, “Jihadist terrorists—whether remnants of ISIS, extremist factions among the rebel groups that ousted Assad, or other actors—could move closer to Israeli communities in the Golan Heights.”

He further cautions that the Assad regime’s advanced weaponry could be turned against Israel. Additionally, Sunni Arab extremists, some allegedly backed by Turkey, might destabilize neighboring Jordan, a cornerstone of Israel’s national security framework. He also points out that Iran may strive to preserve or even expand its regional influence to compensate for its losses, maintaining ties with victorious rebel factions and seeking new pathways to exert control.

Israel’s Strategic Objectives in Syria

According to Orion, Israel’s primary objectives in Syria include:

• • Protecting Israeli citizens and sovereignty.

• • Repelling hostile elements from its borders.

• • Preventing advanced weaponry from falling into the hands of extremists.

• • Ensuring Jordan’s stability.

• • Disrupting Iranian supply lines to Hezbollah.

• • Preventing the resurgence of ISIS or other jihadist groups.

• • Maintaining Israel’s freedom to act unilaterally or in coordination with allies to neutralize threats from the Levant to Iran.

He claims that these goals reflect defensive measures rather than any ambitions of Israeli occupation in Syria.

Actions Taken by Israel

Orion highlights that Israel has already taken steps to achieve these objectives:

• • Fortifying defenses in the Golan Heights following Assad’s anticipated fall.

• • Launching Operation Bow Arrow, which included hundreds of airstrikes targeting Syria’s military arsenal. These strikes focused on military bases, air defenses, ballistic missiles, weapons depots, aircraft, naval assets, and even chemical weapons facilities.

• • On the ground, Israeli forces allegedly violated the 1974 UN Disengagement Agreement by seizing the Syrian side of Mount Hermon and creating a “buffer zone.” This included disarming local Syrian communities under Israeli control.

Orion acknowledges that while these actions aim to enhance security, prolonged Israeli presence in Syrian territories could lead to accusations of illegal land grabs, triggering potential resistance from local forces or increased international pressure.

Recommendations to Consolidate Gains

To mitigate these risks, Orion proposes the following strategies:

1. 1. Reaffirm the 1974 Disengagement Agreement as a foundation for security in the Golan Heights, emphasizing that Israel’s presence in Syria is temporary and contingent on acceptable security arrangements.

1. 1. Establish communication channels with Syria’s emerging government, emphasizing the mutual benefits of secure borders.

1. 1. Maintain a strong buffer zone between Israeli border communities and potential threats in Syria, supported by agreements with local Syrian factions and, where possible, the central government in Damascus.

1. 1. Ensure Israel’s freedom of movement in Syrian airspace to counter any resurgence of Iranian influence, Hezbollah rearmament, or terrorist threats, despite likely objections from the new Syrian authorities.

Orion also stresses the importance of continued U.S. military presence along Syria’s borders with Jordan and Iraq to support Israeli-American cooperation.

Broader Regional Implications

Orion recommends leveraging the situation in post-Assad Syria to:

• • Strengthen Israel’s intelligence capabilities to monitor all relevant actors in Syria.

• • Enhance relationships with moderate forces, including Kurdish, Druze, and Sunni Arab factions, in coordination with Gulf governments and other Arab partners.

• • Link international recognition of Syria’s new government and reconstruction funding to strict security conditions, such as:

     

    • • Removing strategic weapons that threaten neighboring countries.
    • • Preventing the use of Syrian territory by hostile actors.
    • • Eliminating extremist elements from the new government.
    • • Implementing security arrangements with Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon.

He further advocates using the evolving dynamics in Syria to bolster security arrangements in Lebanon, particularly concerning border control and preventing arms transfers to Hezbollah.