Israel is pursuing a new reality in Gaza through a series of military measures, including the establishment and expansion of strategic routes such as the Philadelphi and Netzarim axes. According to a report by Asbab for Strategic Affairs, developments on the ground hint at Israel’s ultimate plan for Gaza: to transform it into a tightly controlled and monitored zone while maintaining indirect control over the territory.
The Infrastructure of Control
Israel’s military strategy involves constructing a network of roads and buffer zones across Gaza. These include:
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- Roads spanning the length of the Gaza Strip, some several kilometers wide.
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- A fortified buffer zone along Gaza’s borders with checkpoints, watchtowers, and military outposts.
The ultimate goal is not to occupy all of Gaza but to monitor it entirely. Israeli leadership believes this strategy will allow them to rapidly detect and neutralize Hamas fighters emerging from underground tunnels to launch rockets. By doing so, they aim to reduce future attacks or at least minimize the damage they can cause.
Palestinians, under this plan, would be allowed to return to smaller, disconnected areas of Gaza, creating isolated and segmented communities.
Ongoing Ceasefire Negotiations
While Israel and Hamas publicly remain at odds, behind closed doors, cautious negotiations are underway. These discussions focus on the shape and scope of Israel’s buffer zones in Gaza, which Hamas considers illegal.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists on maintaining two established axes while constructing three additional ones. These routes would give Israeli forces the flexibility to quickly deploy across Gaza, effectively dictating life in the Strip.
Key Axes in Gaza
1. The Philadelphi Axis
The Philadelphi Axis has long been a focal point in Israeli-Egyptian negotiations and is critical to Israel’s current strategy in Gaza.
Key details:
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- The axis stretches approximately 14 kilometers, separating Rafah in Gaza from Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula.
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- It connects the Mediterranean Sea to the Kerem Shalom crossing, Gaza’s key point of contact with both Egypt and Israel.
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- Historically managed under the 1979 Egypt-Israel peace treaty, the area was intended to prevent military escalation.
Following Israel’s 2005 withdrawal from Gaza, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority took responsibility for the Philadelphi corridor. However, after Hamas assumed full control of Gaza in 2007, Israel imposed a blockade. Hamas responded by building extensive tunnel networks for smuggling goods and arms.
In May 2024, Israel reclaimed the Philadelphi Axis, citing security concerns. Netanyahu’s government argues that retaining control over the corridor is essential to prevent Hamas from rebuilding its arsenal.
2. The Netzarim Axis
This newly developed axis cuts through Gaza and serves a dual purpose: dividing the territory and monitoring movement.
Key details:
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- The axis is six kilometers long and two kilometers wide, running from Israel’s border to the Mediterranean.
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- It isolates Gaza City from the rest of the Strip.
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- Named after the former illegal settlement of Netzarim, the axis hints at potential plans to rebuild Israeli settlements in Gaza.
Five Israeli military bases along the axis allow comprehensive surveillance and control of civilian movement. Netanyahu has declared that Israel will not relinquish control of the Philadelphi or Netzarim axes, even under a ceasefire agreement.
3. Additional Axes Under Construction
Israel is working on a third buffer zone stretching from Khan Younis to the former settlement of Kissufim. This axis will create a narrow passage between Gaza’s northern and southern sections, further dividing the territory into three disconnected zones.
Future plans include:
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- A fourth axis between Rafah and Khan Younis to sever Gaza’s connection to Egypt.
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- A fifth axis separating Beit Hanoun from Gaza City, potentially creating an isolated enclave.
Implications of Israel’s Plan
Israel’s long-term strategy for Gaza aims to weaken Hamas, limit its ability to rebuild, and enforce control over Palestinian life without full reoccupation. These buffer zones and axes provide Israeli forces with the ability to monitor and respond to threats within minutes.
However, these measures carry significant risks:
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- Increased Hostilities: The axes will likely become targets for future attacks, perpetuating the cycle of violence.
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- Fragmentation of Gaza: Isolating Palestinian communities will exacerbate humanitarian challenges, deepen resentment, and undermine any prospects for lasting peace.
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- International Legal and Political Backlash: The creation of buffer zones and expanded Israeli military presence in Gaza violates international law, drawing criticism from Egypt, Palestinians, and the broader international community.
Conclusion
Israel’s “monitored fish tank” vision for Gaza is designed to suppress Hamas and maintain long-term control while avoiding full occupation. However, this plan risks entrenching divisions, perpetuating conflict, and failing to address the root causes of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While the physical map of Gaza may change, the deep-seated animosity between Israelis and Palestinians remains unaddressed, signaling that the ultimate “solution” will remain elusive.
