In recent weeks, Iraqi factions under the umbrella of the so-called “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” have stopped issuing statements about attacks on Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories. This comes after previously averaging around 25 attacks per week. The abrupt pause in their operations has sparked analysis and speculation regarding the underlying reasons.
Timeline of Events
The last known statement by the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” was issued on November 21, announcing a drone strike targeting southern occupied Palestine. Since then, operations have ceased, despite an announcement on January 8 by Yemen’s Houthi group claiming a joint operation with Iraqi factions targeting a vital site in southern Palestine. However, no further details were revealed.
Israeli Threats and Internal Pressures
According to Ihsan al-Shammari, head of the Iraqi Political Thinking Center, several factors have contributed to the cessation of these attacks:
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- Israeli Retaliatory Threats: Al-Shammari noted that Israel’s warnings of targeted strikes against leaders, headquarters, and weapon depots of these factions created a significant deterrent.
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- Impact of Assassinations: The killing of figures like Hassan Nasrallah and other Hezbollah leaders has further influenced these factions’ strategies.
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- U.S. Pressure on Iraqi Government: The U.S. has reportedly pressured Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani to halt the attacks. Al-Sudani’s government, labeled the “Resistance Government,” has shown partial compliance, given its sensitive political position.
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- Regional Dynamics: The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the 60-day ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel have played a significant role in this de-escalation.
Broader Geopolitical Shifts
Al-Shammari highlighted that Iraq, as part of the broader Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape, is witnessing significant transformations. He pointed out that:
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- The push for international condemnation of attacks from Iraqi factions, coupled with U.S. hostility toward Iran and armed groups, has driven these factions to reassess their tactics.
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- The assassination of Qasem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in 2020 marked a turning point, signaling what many see as the beginning of the unraveling of the “Axis of Resistance.”
Internal Criticism of Iran
Mohammad al-Tamimi, secretary-general of the “Faithful Promise Corps” (Faylaq al-Waad al-Sadiq), accused Iran of abandoning its allies. He claimed that the “Axis of Resistance” has been in decline since Soleimani’s assassination and criticized Iran for failing to act decisively during critical moments.
Al-Tamimi wrote on X (formerly Twitter):
“The new Middle East did not begin with Assad’s fall but rather with Soleimani’s assassination. Since then, Iran has failed to act, leaving its allies to face their fate alone.”
U.S. Intervention and Regional Influence
Iraqi political analyst Ahmed Al-Alwani attributed the halt in attacks to explicit warnings from U.S. Ambassador Alina Romanowski. In a message to the Iraqi government, Romanowski reportedly emphasized that stopping attacks by factions aligned with Iraqi political parties was the government’s responsibility. Failure to do so, she warned, would prompt intervention by the international coalition.
Al-Alwani explained:
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- The recent presence of Major General Kevin Leahy, commander of Operation Inherent Resolve, in Baghdad is linked to these developments. His role includes monitoring faction activities under the Quds Force’s direction and preventing spillover threats into Iraq.
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- The U.S., Israel, and their allies have managed to dismantle much of the operational cohesion within the “Axis of Resistance,” separating its various theaters militarily and politically.
Consequences of Assad’s Fall
The collapse of Assad’s regime, according to analysts, represents a critical blow to Iran-backed factions in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. The absence of Assad’s support has significantly weakened the resistance network, forcing factions to recalibrate their operations.
Al-Alwani concluded that the region is undergoing a political and military transformation aimed at ending the dominance of the “Axis of Resistance.” He predicted further changes in the near future, with significant implications for Iraq and Yemen.
Continued Support for Gaza
Despite the halt in attacks, the Coordinating Committee of Iraqi Factions (including groups like Harakat al-Nujaba, Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, and Awliyaa al-Dam) reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Gaza. In a statement issued on November 28, the committee denied claims of the collapse of the “Unified Front” strategy, which has been central to the resistance’s regional operations.
The statement also highlighted that, since November 2, Iraqi factions claimed responsibility for 316 attacks against Israel, 94 of which directly impacted Israeli territories.
