Despite the lack of breakthroughs at the “Arab-Islamic Summit” hosted by Saudi Arabia last month, current discussions within Egyptian diplomatic circles suggest Riyadh is working to enhance its prospects for normalization with Israel. This initiative reportedly hinges on securing a ceasefire, recognizing a Palestinian state, and advancing a two-state solution.
A Strategic Timing Post-U.S. Elections
The meeting of the “Global Alliance for a Two-State Solution,” involving 90 countries and launched in Saudi Arabia recently, is seen as a critical step in Riyadh’s strategy. However, Saudi Arabia has scheduled an emergency summit—without broad consultation—for a date following the U.S. elections, signaling its intent to align its efforts with the election outcomes.
Saudi leaders hope the second summit, following an earlier iteration that yielded no concrete results, will serve as a platform for presenting a new offer to Tel Aviv. The proposal would condition normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel on ending the war and recognizing the Palestinian state’s right to exist. This could pave the way for swift Saudi-Israeli normalization.
Balancing Domestic and International Criticism
Regardless of the winning of Donald Trump, Riyadh aims to implement its agenda in a manner that minimizes potential backlash. Saudi officials have reportedly discussed their plans with Egyptian counterparts in recent weeks. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is expected to attend the summit, which is intended to echo the outcomes of the “Beirut Summit” and other historic Arab meetings.
Reconstruction and Regional Ceasefires
Saudi Arabia also envisions that recognizing Israel could initiate a new phase of regional cooperation, including reconstruction efforts in Gaza—albeit at a slower pace. The normalization push is tied to a ceasefire in Lebanon, as intensive Egyptian-Qatari negotiations continue to shape a viable de-escalation framework.
Netanyahu as a Stumbling Block
Egyptian sources have indicated that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s refusal to implement a ceasefire proposal for Gaza remains the primary obstacle. Despite near-complete consensus on the Egyptian proposal’s details, Netanyahu appeared to be delaying progress until after the U.S. elections.
The sources also revealed Egypt’s priority for a prisoner exchange, focusing on releasing elderly Israeli captives in exchange for dozens of Palestinian detainees. However, these discussions are ongoing. Egypt has firmly rejected any pressure to coerce Palestinian resistance into accepting a weak agreement that primarily serves Israeli interests.
