Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and his ruling team are celebrating the re-election of former U.S. President Donald Trump and his return to the White House.
Trump, famously claiming to protect the “rear” of the Crown Prince, is considered one of the staunchest supporters of despots like Mohammed bin Salman as long as he is paid for huge financial deals.
According to an analysis by Foreign Policy magazine, Saudi Arabia supported Trump in the U.S. elections and strongly hoped for his return to the White House to bolster their regional ambitions.
The analysis observed that the Israeli war in Gaza – which resulted in assassinations, tanker wars, and drone attacks across the Middle East – put the Gulf states in a state of tension.
It was likely that Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, would take a tougher stance on conflicts in Sudan and Yemen, and engage diplomatically with Iran, positions that contradict the geopolitical ambitions of Saudi Arabia.
Therefore, Saudi Arabia preferred to see former President Donald Trump return to the White House. Trump’s transactional approach and disregard for political norms were essential for enhancing Saudi influence in the region.
This preference reflects deeper strategic calculations. During Trump’s previous term, the Gulf states enjoyed unprecedented support from the United States, including arms deals and Washington’s hardline stance against Iran.
Harris’s approach to U.S. foreign policy is entirely different. Although the Biden administration maintained some tough positions on Iran, it did not reach the level of Trump’s policies.
Harris is likely to revive the diplomatic policies followed by the Obama administration, moving away from the aggressive policies that supported the Gulf’s strategic goals.
In 2019, when she was a member of the U.S. Senate, Harris stated that she would return to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which Trump had withdrawn from, and take all necessary actions to confront Iran and protect U.S. forces in the region.
Biden had made a similar promise during his 2020 presidential campaign, but negotiations stalled for various reasons.
Overall, Harris prefers a more diplomatic and multilateral approach to handling regional crises. In contrast, Trump closely aligned with Gulf interests during his term, especially concerning Iran and Yemen.
With Trump’s return to the presidency, Mohammed bin Salman sees an opportunity to enhance his domestic and regional ambitions.
During Trump’s term, Mohammed bin Salman began negotiating a massive deal with the United States.
This deal includes a security agreement and cooperation in the field of civilian nuclear energy and defense – including arms sales – between the two countries. But a prerequisite was that Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel, conditioned on significant progress towards establishing a Palestinian state. However, these talks faced obstacles due to the ongoing war in Gaza.
Although some described the proposed agreement as akin to NATO, it is closer to the defense agreement between the United States and Japan.
Unlike NATO’s Article 5, this agreement does not include a guarantee of automatic U.S. military intervention in case Saudi Arabia is attacked, giving Washington flexibility in determining the level of support it provides to Riyadh.
Harris is likely to limit U.S. security commitments towards Riyadh and adhere to existing regulations, unlike Trump. In 2019, during Trump’s administration, Saudi Arabia was attacked on two oil facilities belonging to Aramco, and the United States responded by deploying additional forces, missile defense systems, and radar equipment in Saudi Arabia.
Mohammed bin Salman believes that Trump’s readiness to provide unconditional support for Saudi security interests makes formalizing an agreement with the United States possible, even if the two-state solution remains a thorny issue.
The Crown Prince seeks military superiority over his neighbors in the region, and the defense side of the agreement aims to strengthen military ties between the United States and Saudi Arabia through joint training programs, advisory programs, and increased arms sales.
Riyadh aims to secure advanced air defense systems to counter threats from drones and missiles from its regional adversaries, especially Iran and its axis in the region.
Trump previously set a precedent in this area; in 2017, his administration facilitated a massive arms deal with Riyadh that could be worth up to $110 billion, enhancing Saudi Arabia’s military capabilities and its regional superiority.
