In a report published by The Observer, Andrew Roth states that the Israeli escalation against Iran is alarming. Intelligence analyses have revealed that the Iranian missiles that struck Israel and the much-touted Israeli missile defense system are not, in fact, invulnerable.
Following the attack on Tuesday night, Israeli officials claimed that their defenses held firm.
The Israeli military reported that Iran launched over 180 missiles; however, few details about the damages were disclosed. U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan remarked that the attack “appears to have been thwarted and ineffective.”
As Israel prepares for retaliatory action, analysts believe that these initial reports may be misleading, potentially altering Israel’s response calculations if it fears entering into what the writer described as a “ping-pong missile game” with Iran, particularly if Tehran chooses softer targets in the future.
Satellite images and footage on social media platforms have shown missile after missile hitting Nevatim Air Base in the Negev Desert, resulting in at least some secondary explosions. This indicates that despite the effectiveness of the Iron Dome and Israeli Arrow air defenses, the Iranian strikes were more effective than previously acknowledged.
Experts analyzing the footage observed at least 32 direct hits on the airbase. While none caused significant damage, some landed near hangars housing F-35 jets, which are among Israel’s most crucial military assets.
Though these missiles did not seem to hit aircraft parked on the ground, they could have inflicted lethal consequences if targeted at a city like Tel Aviv or directed toward other vital targets such as the Bazan Group’s oil refineries near Haifa, potentially leading to an environmental disaster next to a major Israeli city.
Derek Elefith, an analyst and researcher at the CNAS group, noted in a post on the group’s site that “the fundamental truth remains: Iran has demonstrated its capability to strike Israel powerfully if it so chooses.” He added that “air bases are challenging targets, likely resulting in fewer casualties. Iran might opt for a different target, such as a crowded ground forces base of the Israeli army or a civilian area where a missile strike could result in high casualties.”
The newspaper reported that there is a risk associated with the exchange of missile fire with Iran, which is also an economic issue. Israel’s air defense missile stockpile is costly and limited, meaning the country may become more vulnerable to Iranian strikes as the conflict persists.
Elefith wrote: “In light of Israel’s public commitment to strike Iran, this will likely not be the last time we witness an exchange of fire.” He expressed concern that “this exchange will be, in the long run, a confrontation that Israel cannot sustain if this conflict escalates.”
In the long term, Israel may target Iranian ballistic missile production lines and their infrastructure to prevent attacks.
Benjamin Netanyahu has long claimed that Iran’s ballistic missile program poses a danger to Israel akin to its nuclear program. An Israeli counterattack seems imminent. Yedioth Ahronoth reported that General Michael Kurilla, the commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), will be in Israel to coordinate the Israeli response.
President Joe Biden and his National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated they would engage in direct consultations with Israel regarding its military response.
Local journalists have been informed that a response to the Iranian strike is imminent, possibly timed before or after the anniversary of Hamas attacks on October 7. Proposed targets include Iranian military facilities, including command and control centers for the Revolutionary Guard and energy infrastructure such as oil refineries, potentially leading to a direct strike on Iran’s nuclear program, which Tehran has warned is one of its red lines. Biden has cautioned Netanyahu against compromising it.
Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group in Brussels mentioned during a group podcast, “It’s hard to envision Israel conducting a symbolic and limited attack; they did this in April, and now Israel needs to do something higher by several degrees than what it did in April.”
Vaez warned of a “ballistic missile confrontation between Israel and Iran, which could spiral out of control at any moment, leading to casualties in Israel, which could then escalate further, potentially dragging the United States in and targeting Iran’s allies against American forces and bases in the region.”
He added that the attack launched by Iran against Israel utilized its “most advanced weapons, and it possesses a sufficient stockpile of weapons capable of doing so for months. This is the world we will live in unless someone halts this cycle of escalation.” He concluded that “the only person with that power is the President of the United States, whose record doesn’t give us much hope.”
