The gold price forecast continues to shock global markets as the precious metal hits record highs, surpassing $4,200 per ounce this week. The surge reflects growing demand for safe-haven assets, driven by the U.S.–China trade war, the weakening U.S. dollar, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon begin cutting interest rates.
Gold Price Forecast Driven by U.S.–China Trade Tensions
The latest leap in gold prices followed President Donald Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, along with new restrictions on sensitive software exports beginning November 1 — a direct response to Beijing’s actions on rare earth minerals.
Although China defended its position, it avoided new retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods.
The gold price forecast for 2025 continues to surprise investors as gold hits record highs, surpassing $4,200 per ounce. According to global gold market trends 2025, demand for safe-haven assets is accelerating amid rising U.S.–China tensions and inflation risks. According to Reuters, spot gold rose 1.4% to $4,074 per ounce, setting a new record at $4,078, while U.S. gold futures for December jumped to $4,120.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said that despite a temporary calm between Washington and Beijing, “the threat of additional tariffs remains. Investor and central bank demand should continue to drive the gold price forecast toward $4,200.”
Since the start of the year, gold has gained 53%, powered by geopolitical risk, central bank buying, ETF inflows, and rate-cut expectations.
Could Gold Reach $5,000 an Ounce?
Traders are expecting interest rate cuts of 25 basis points in both October and December, with probabilities of 95% and 79.8%, respectively, according to Reuters.
Randy Smallwood, CEO of Wheaton Precious Metals, told Bloomberg that investors have yet to see gold’s full potential:
“I’m confident we’ll see gold exceed $5,000 next year — and possibly double that before the decade ends.”
He added that everything depends on the U.S. dollar, saying, “As long as the dollar weakens, there’s nothing stopping gold from surpassing these levels.”
Mostafa Fahmy, Chief Strategy Officer at Fortress Investment, told Al Jazeera Net that the world is now living through an era of record global debt and political instability. Without structural reforms, he expects gold to exceed $5,000 per ounce by 2026 or shortly thereafter.
Walid Faqha, Investment Director at Ahli Financial Brokerage, agreed that Trump’s escalation against China will sustain gold demand, predicting prices to hit $4,200 before year-end and possibly $4,600 next year.
Optimistic Gold Price Forecast: $10,000 and Beyond
Veteran strategist Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, believes gold’s role as a hedge against inflation is becoming increasingly evident as central banks diversify away from the dollar following the freezing of Russian reserves.
He told Fortune:
“The bursting of China’s real estate bubble, Trump’s trade war, and his push to reshape the geopolitical order all enhance gold’s appeal as a safe haven.”
Yardeni forecasts $5,000 gold by 2026, and if current conditions persist, he sees the metal reaching $10,000 before the decade’s end.
Based on the current trend since 2023, analysts estimate that gold could hit $10,000 between mid-2028 and early 2029.
Bold Vision: $100,000 an Ounce
In 2024, renowned economist Peter Schiff, Chief Strategist at Euro Pacific Asset Management, predicted the start of a long-term bullish cycle for gold.
Since then, the precious metal has surged 46% in a single year, from $2,652 to around $4,100 per ounce.
Speaking on The Lead-Lag Report, Schiff said:
“If gold once climbed from $20 to $2,600 an ounce, there’s nothing preventing it from hitting $26,000 or even $100,000. Gold doesn’t change — we just keep devaluing the dollar.”
Schiff and other analysts argue that the real issue is not gold itself but the decline in the U.S. dollar’s purchasing power due to uncontrolled money printing by central banks.
Debt Crisis and Inflation Fuel the Gold Price Forecast: The Hidden Driver Behind Gold’s Rise
Beyond short-term factors like tariffs and geopolitical risks lies a deeper, more enduring catalyst — the global debt crisis.
According to U.S. Treasury data, the national debt reached $37.64 trillion as of September 30, 2025, equal to 125% of GDP.
China’s debt stands at $16.6 trillion, Japan’s at $10 trillion (236% of GDP), and the EU’s public debt reached €14.1 trillion, or 81.8% of GDP, according to Eurostat and Statista.
Walid Faqha explained,
“The world today stands atop a mountain of debt exceeding $330 trillion, which pushes central banks to buy gold to protect their reserves from systemic financial risks.”
Schiff echoed this, saying,
“Gold doesn’t change — what changes is the value of paper money, as governments keep printing more without accountability.”
A Global Monetary Shift: Moving Away from the Dollar
Central banks worldwide are increasingly dumping their U.S. dollar reserves in favour of buying gold, signalling a crack in the global financial system.
Schiff noted that
“Investors haven’t yet realised what central banks are doing — they’ve already started unloading dollars because they know what’s coming for the paper-money system.”
He added that inflation will not return to 2% as the Federal Reserve expects, but will instead give way to a prolonged inflationary cycle, making gold the most attractive asset for preserving value.
The Age of Gold Has Only Just Begun
Experts may differ on the future price of gold — whether it reaches $5,000, $10,000, or even $100,000 per ounce — but they all agree that global debt, monetary instability, and declining confidence in the U.S. dollar are the sparks fueling this historic rise.
The key question remains:
Are we witnessing a temporary rally, or the dawn of a new monetary era led by gold?
One thing is clear — the age of gold has not yet truly begun.
Written by: TABA Digital Marketing Agency
