‘No war, no peace’: Can Iran break the deadlock with the US?

Iran says it is ready to negotiate an end to its war with the United States, but insists Washington must first meet its conditions for a ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf told Al Jazeera that Tehran wants to move beyond the current state of “no war and no peace”.

Full-scale fighting remains on hold, but negotiations have stalled. Washington continues to tighten sanctions and maintain its naval blockade of Iranian ports, while Tehran uses its influence over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to pressure the US and its regional partners.

“The ball is now in the American court.” Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaking to Al Jazeera

What Does Iran Want Before Negotiations Resume?

Tehran has presented seven conditions for ending the conflict, communicated to Washington through Qatari mediation.

Ghalibaf maintains that these demands formed part of an understanding reached with Washington in Islamabad in June and must be implemented before negotiations can resume.

However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has described Iran’s demands as unacceptable.

Qatar says diplomatic efforts are continuing, while President Donald Trump has spoken of momentum towards ending the conflict.

The Strait of Hormuz Remains Iran’s Main Leverage

Iran continues to assert control over which vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes.

Attacks on tankers accused of using unauthorised routes have sharply disrupted maritime traffic.

The figures were reported by Reuters using ship-tracking data from Kpler.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also claimed that explosions had stopped two supertankers carrying more than four million barrels of oil between them. The IRGC said the vessels had travelled along an unauthorised route.

Ghalibaf has warned that the Strait of Hormuz will never return to its pre-war status.

Analysts say Iran’s ability to disrupt shipping gives Tehran considerable leverage, even as American sanctions and the naval blockade damage its economy.

Can Washington Sustain the Pressure?

The Trump administration appears divided over whether to continue applying economic pressure or negotiate a settlement.

According to Axios, Rubio favours maintaining pressure, while Vice President JD Vance has pushed for a negotiated deal. Other senior officials have reportedly supported keeping the pressure campaign in place.

The November 2026 US midterm elections have also complicated Washington’s calculations.

With Democrats set to exercise greater control over congressional spending when the new Congress takes office in January, analysts say the administration could face additional restrictions on financing renewed military operations.

Gerd Nonneman, a professor at Georgetown University in Qatar, warned that maintaining the current military and economic pressure indefinitely would be costly for Washington.

Why the Stalemate Could Collapse

Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group argues that Washington and Tehran view the current situation differently.

The US may see the blockade and sanctions as a way to weaken Iran without restarting major hostilities. Tehran, however, regards the same pressure as an unsustainable economic siege.

Analysts warn that prolonged pressure could make Iran more willing to escalate militarily rather than accept a settlement perceived domestically as surrender.

Iran has also signalled that renewed hostilities could trigger retaliation against US military bases and civilian infrastructure across the region, potentially drawing Gulf countries deeper into the conflict.

For now, both sides remain unwilling to make the concessions needed for a settlement, while the blockade, shipping disruptions and threat of renewed fighting continue.